⚽ Brazilian Série A
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 04 November 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Result: Athletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco da Gama
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama finished 1-3. Vasco da Gama won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.44, did not land.
Athletico Paranaense face Vasco da Gama in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Wednesday 04 November 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Athletico Paranaense have 2 wins from their last 5, while Vasco da Gama have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Athletico Paranaense won 1, Vasco da Gama won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.8-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.5% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 72% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Athletico Paranaense and Vasco da Gama. Wins shown from Athletico Paranaense’s perspective: Athletico Paranaense 1 · 1 drawn · Vasco da Gama 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Athletico Paranaense | 1 – 3 | Vasco da Gama | L |
| 2026-05-10 | Vasco da Gama | 1 – 0 | Athletico Paranaense | L |
| 2024-08-27 | Vasco da Gama | 2 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | L |
| 2024-05-05 | Athletico Paranaense | 1 – 0 | Vasco da Gama | W |
| 2023-11-25 | Athletico Paranaense | 0 – 0 | Vasco da Gama | D |
📈 Recent form
Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Chapecoense. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Vasco da Gama.
- LAthletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
- LGrêmio 2-0 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- DVitória 1-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LAthletico Paranaense 0-2 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
- WChapecoense 1-4 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
Vasco da Gama come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Athletico Paranaense. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Palmeiras.
- WAthletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
- LPalmeiras 1-0 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- LVasco da Gama 1-4 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
- WVasco da Gama 3-2 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
- LVasco da Gama 1-3 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- ClaudinhoKnee Injury
- C. TeranNot in squad
- Cauan BarrosLeg Injury
- C. CuestaHip Injury
- A. GomezInjury
- Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
🧩 Line-ups
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Athletico Paranaense at 45% to win and Vasco da Gama at 29%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense Win | 45% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Vasco da Gama Win | 29% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Athletico Paranaense or Draw at 1.28 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense or Draw | 71% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Vasco da Gama or Draw | 55% | 53% | @ 1.73 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletico Paranaense or Vasco da Gama is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense +1.5 | 88% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Vasco da Gama +2 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.75 | 81% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1 | 80% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.5 | 78% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.75 | 75% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.25 | 72% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.5 | 71% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Vasco da Gama +1 | 66% | 67% | 1.41 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.25 | 64% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.75 | 61% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Athletico Paranaense 0 | 58% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.5 | 55% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.25 | 51% | 54% | 1.76 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.25 | 49% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.5 | 45% | 48% | 2.03 |
| Vasco da Gama 0 | 42% | 36% | @ 2.64 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.75 | 39% | 40% | 2.36 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.25 | 36% | 31% | @ 3.06 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1 | 34% | 33% | 2.92 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.5 | 29% | 27% | @ 3.52 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.25 | 28% | 28% | 3.35 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.75 | 25% | 21% | @ 4.42 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.5 | 22% | 26% | 3.67 |
| Vasco da Gama -1 | 20% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.75 | 19% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Athletico Paranaense -2 | 15% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Vasco da Gama -1.5 | 12% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.
Who is the favourite for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama.
What is the predicted score for Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.77 for Athletico Paranaense and 1.03 for Vasco da Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Athletico Paranaense and Vasco da Gama play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 04 November 2026, 22:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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