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⚽ Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Paris FC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Auxerre vs Paris FC in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Auxerre face Paris FC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Auxerre have 2 wins from their last 5, while Paris FC have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris FC win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Auxerre vs Paris FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.24 – 1.38 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	10.0%	6.9%	3.2%	1.1%
1	9.0%	12.5%	8.6%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.6%	7.7%	5.3%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.3%	3.2%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Auxerre winDrawParis FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Auxerre vs Paris FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Paris FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Auxerre 34%Draw 30%Paris FC 36%

34%30%36%

36%

Paris FC Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Auxerre and Paris FC. Wins shown from Auxerre’s perspective: 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-08	Auxerre	0 – 0	Paris FC	D
2025-11-29	Paris FC	1 – 1	Auxerre	D

📈 Recent form

Auxerre

Auxerre come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Le Havre. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at Strasbourg.

LStrasbourg 5-1 AuxerreLigue 1
DAuxerre 1-1 Le MansLigue 1
WLe Havre 1-3 AuxerreLigue 1
LRennes 4-1 AuxerreLigue 1
WAuxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1

Paris FC

Paris FC come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Monaco. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Lens.

WParis FC 3-1 MonacoLigue 1
LLens 2-1 Paris FCLigue 1
WParis FC 4-3 RennesLigue 1
LLorient 1-0 Paris FCLigue 1
WParis FC 2-1 StrasbourgLigue 1

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Paris FC 4-2-3-1

1Trapp

14Traoré

31Chergui

42Coppola

6Otávio

20Lopez

33Lees-Melou

10Kebbal

7Pagis

27Simon

9Sinayoko

9Archer

10Namaso

21Faivre

22Oppegård

5Danois

8Ahamada

27Sy

92Akpa

4Tuanzebe

15Makosso

1Nardi

Auxerre 3-4-2-1

Paris FC

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Monaco, 01/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: L. Rosenior

Bench last match16Nkambadio5Mbow28De Smet23Matondo8Zabi4Marchetti18Sissoko11Krasso3Mbemba

Auxerre

Last starting XI (3-4-2-1) vs Strasbourg, 01/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: W. Still

Bench last match23Diop34Dioubate20Diomandé47Khoudda32Mandengue46Piedfort29Senaya13Siwe77Zossou

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Auxerre at 34% to win and Paris FC at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Paris FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Paris FC Win	36%	54%	@ 1.75
Auxerre Win	34%	22%	@ 4.33
Draw	30%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris FC or Draw at 1.20 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Paris FC or Draw	64%	78%	@ 1.20
Auxerre or Draw	62%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	73%	66%	@ 1.44
Under 2.5	51%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 2.5	49%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	27%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	26%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	48%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Auxerre 22%Draw 24%Paris FC 54%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Auxerre vs Paris FC?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Paris FC?

Our model makes a Paris FC win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC.

What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Paris FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Auxerre and 1.38 for Paris FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Auxerre and Paris FC play?

Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.