Sun 20 Sep1-0Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Telstar

AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar finished 1-0. AZ Alkmaar won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 2.00, landed.

AZ Alkmaar face Telstar in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:30 UTC. Recent form: AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins from their last 5, while Telstar have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 59%, projecting a 1.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Telstar +2 @ 1.86

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.89 – 1.09 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.1%	5.5%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%
1	9.6%	10.5%	5.7%	2.1%	0.6%
2	9.1%	9.9%	5.4%	2.0%	0.5%
3	5.7%	6.2%	3.4%	1.2%	0.3%
4	2.7%	2.9%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

AZ Alkmaar winDrawTelstar win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Telstar with a +2 start at odds 1.86, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 59%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

AZ Alkmaar 59%Draw 24%Telstar 18%

59%24%18%

59%

AZ Alkmaar Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between AZ Alkmaar and Telstar. Wins shown from AZ Alkmaar’s perspective: AZ Alkmaar 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	AZ Alkmaar	1 – 0	Telstar	W
2026-01-25	Telstar	0 – 1	AZ Alkmaar	W
2025-10-05	AZ Alkmaar	2 – 1	Telstar	W

📈 Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.

WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie

Telstar

Telstar come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at AZ Alkmaar.

LAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
DHeerenveen 0-0 TelstarEredivisie
LTwente 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
DTelstar 2-2 CambuurEredivisie
LTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AZ Alkmaar

D. KasiusGroin Injury
S. ResinkKnee Injury

Telstar

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AZ Alkmaar at 59% to win and Telstar at 18%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AZ Alkmaar Win	59%	78%	@ 1.22
Draw	24%	15%	@ 6.50
Telstar Win	18%	8%	@ 12.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AZ Alkmaar or Draw at 1.05 (82% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	82%	92%	@ 1.05
Telstar or Draw	41%	22%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	89%	@ 1.07
Under 3.5	65%	44%	@ 2.10
Over 2.5	57%	74%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	43%	26%	@ 3.60
Over 3.5	35%	56%	@ 1.67
Under 1.5	20%	11%	@ 9.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	43%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AZ Alkmaar or Telstar is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Telstar +2	75%	51%	@ 1.86
Telstar +1.75	70%	45%	@ 2.10
Telstar +1.5	66%	41%	@ 2.33
AZ Alkmaar -0.25	65%	83%	1.15
Telstar +1.25	59%	35%	@ 2.73
AZ Alkmaar -0.5	59%	76%	1.23
Telstar +1	53%	28%	@ 3.43
AZ Alkmaar -0.75	53%	74%	1.27
Telstar +0.75	47%	26%	@ 3.69
AZ Alkmaar -1	47%	72%	1.32
Telstar +0.5	41%	24%	@ 4.00
AZ Alkmaar -1.25	41%	65%	1.46
Telstar +0.25	35%	17%	@ 5.50
AZ Alkmaar -1.5	34%	59%	1.61
AZ Alkmaar -1.75	30%	55%	1.75
AZ Alkmaar -2	25%	49%	1.98

📈 How the market moved

AZ Alkmaar 77%Draw 14%Telstar 9%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?

Our model's main pick is Telstar with a +2 start at odds 1.86, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 51%.

Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?

Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 59%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar.

What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.89 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.09 for Telstar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AZ Alkmaar and Telstar play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.