⚽ Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Result: Bayern Munich 7-0 Union Berlin
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin finished 7-0. Bayern Munich won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 3.5 goals at 1.44, landed.
Bayern Munich face Union Berlin in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Bayern Munich have 3 wins from their last 5, while Union Berlin have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bayern Munich won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 84%, projecting a 3.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates a Bayern Munich win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 84%. Goals lean over 2.5 (81%), both teams to score points yes (57%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Bayern Munich and Union Berlin. Wins shown from Bayern Munich’s perspective: Bayern Munich 3 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Bayern Munich | 7 – 0 | Union Berlin | W |
| 2026-03-21 | Bayern Munich | 4 – 0 | Union Berlin | W |
| 2025-11-08 | Union Berlin | 2 – 2 | Bayern Munich | D |
| 2025-03-15 | Union Berlin | 1 – 1 | Bayern Munich | D |
| 2024-11-02 | Bayern Munich | 3 – 0 | Union Berlin | W |
📈 Recent form
Bayern Munich come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 18 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at home to Union Berlin.
- WBayern Munich 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- WSV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- WBayern Munich 5-0 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
- DFC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- WVfL Osnabrück 1-4 Bayern MunichDFB Pokal
Union Berlin come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Eintracht Braunschweig. Their most recent defeat was 0-7 at Bayern Munich.
- LBayern Munich 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- LUnion Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- LBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- DUnion Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- WEintracht Braunschweig 2-4 Union BerlinDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- T. BuchmannKnee Injury
- O. BurkeAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. FriedrichInjury
- A. IlicIllness
- J. JuranovicIllness
- A. MarkgrafKnee Injury
- S. NsokiMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Bayern Munich at 84% to win and Union Berlin at 6%, with the draw at 9%. Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich Win | 84% | 90% | @ 1.06 |
| Draw | 9% | 6% | @ 15.00 |
| Union Berlin Win | 6% | 4% | @ 23.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.01 (94% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or Draw | 94% | 96% | @ 1.01 |
| Union Berlin or Draw | 18% | 10% | @ 11.00 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 81% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 94% | @ 1.02 |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 | 37% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
| Under 1.5 | 7% | 6% | @ 17.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 43% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bayern Munich or Union Berlin is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich -0.75 | 77% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Bayern Munich -1 | 72% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Bayern Munich -1.25 | 68% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Bayern Munich -1.5 | 63% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Bayern Munich -1.75 | 57% | 78% | 1.21 |
| Bayern Munich -2 | 52% | – | 1.27 |
| Union Berlin +1.75 | 43% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
| Union Berlin +1.5 | 37% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Union Berlin +1.25 | 32% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Union Berlin +1 | 28% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Union Berlin +0.75 | 23% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
Our model's main pick is over 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 63% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 84%. It projects an expected 3.5-0.9 scoreline for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin.
What is the predicted score for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.47 for Bayern Munich and 0.90 for Union Berlin. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Bayern Munich and Union Berlin play?
Kick-off is Friday 18 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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