⚽ Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 finished 3-4. FSV Mainz 05 won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.62, did not land.
Borussia Mönchengladbach face FSV Mainz 05 in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Borussia Mönchengladbach have 1 win from their last 5, while FSV Mainz 05 have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1, FSV Mainz 05 won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Borussia Mönchengladbach with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05. Wins shown from Borussia Mönchengladbach’s perspective: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 · 2 drawn · FSV Mainz 05 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 – 4 | FSV Mainz 05 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 – 1 | FSV Mainz 05 | D |
| 2025-12-05 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0 – 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | W |
| 2025-03-07 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 – 3 | FSV Mainz 05 | L |
| 2024-10-25 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1 – 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | D |
📈 Recent form
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Schott Mainz. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at home to FSV Mainz 05.
- LBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LSC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- LBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 SV ElversbergBundesliga
- LRB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- WSchott Mainz 0-5 Borussia MönchengladbachDFB Pokal
FSV Mainz 05 come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 9-0 at Krieschow. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.
- WBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LFSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- WHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- DFSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WKrieschow 0-9 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. CastropShoulder Injury
- T. KleindienstSuspended (red card)
- Y. KonoplyaKnee Injury
- N. KuhnMuscle Injury
- E. LeopoldKnee Injury
- Z. UnoLacking Match Fitness
- D. KohrFoot Injury
- P. NebelMuscle Injury
- SilasBroken shinbone
- S. WidmerKnee Injury
- R. ZentnerHand Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Borussia Mönchengladbach at 32% to win and FSV Mainz 05 at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 Win | 42% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach Win | 32% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FSV Mainz 05 or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 or Draw | 68% | 68% | @ 1.36 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw | 58% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 | 65% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Borussia Mönchengladbach or FSV Mainz 05 is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 | 87% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +2 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.75 | 83% | 80% | 1.18 |
| FSV Mainz 05 +1.25 | 82% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.5 | 80% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| FSV Mainz 05 +1 | 77% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.25 | 75% | 73% | 1.30 |
| FSV Mainz 05 +0.75 | 73% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +1 | 69% | 70% | 1.36 |
| FSV Mainz 05 +0.5 | 68% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.75 | 64% | 63% | 1.52 |
| FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 | 62% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.5 | 58% | 56% | 1.70 |
| FSV Mainz 05 0 | 55% | 58% | 1.67 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.25 | 52% | 50% | 1.92 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -0.25 | 48% | 50% | 1.96 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 | 45% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 | 42% | 44% | 2.19 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.25 | 38% | 37% | 2.59 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 | 36% | 37% | 2.55 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5 | 32% | 32% | 2.94 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -1 | 31% | 30% | 3.19 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.75 | 27% | 26% | 3.65 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -1.25 | 25% | 27% | 3.57 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 | 23% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -1.5 | 20% | 25% | 3.80 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach -1.25 | 18% | 18% | 5.25 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -1.75 | 17% | 20% | 4.80 |
| FSV Mainz 05 -2 | 14% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach -1.5 | 13% | 17% | 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model's main pick is Borussia Mönchengladbach with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.56 for FSV Mainz 05. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 play?
Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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