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⚽ Championship

Cardiff vs Burnley Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cardiff vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Cardiff face Burnley in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC. Recent form: Cardiff have 2 wins from their last 5, while Burnley have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Burnley won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.4-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cardiff vs Burnley with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley or Draw @ 1.67

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	8.4%	6.5%	3.3%	1.3%
1	7.5%	11.5%	8.8%	4.5%	1.7%
2	5.1%	7.9%	6.1%	3.1%	1.2%
3	2.3%	3.6%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Cardiff winDrawBurnley win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Cardiff vs Burnley comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.67, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Cardiff 24%Draw 26%Burnley 50%

24%26%50%

50%

Burnley Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Cardiff and Burnley. Wins shown from Cardiff’s perspective: Burnley 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-04	Cardiff	1 – 2	Burnley	L
2024-08-17	Burnley	5 – 0	Cardiff	L

📈 Recent form

Cardiff

Cardiff come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Watford. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Wolves.

DCardiff 3-3 West HamChampionship
LWolves 3-0 CardiffChampionship
WCardiff 1-0 BirminghamChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 CardiffChampionship
WCardiff 5-1 WatfordChampionship

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Lincoln.

DQPR 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
DBurnley 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
LLincoln 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 WolvesChampionship
DBurnley 2-2 CharltonChampionship

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Burnley 4-2-3-1

37Coudert

2Walker

18Ekdal

44Igor

23Pires

29Laurent

5Hatate

17Hountondji

10Edwards

19Ramazani

9Vardy

9Salech

16Willock

10Colwill

8Moylan

11Tanner

18Robertson

23Scanlon

3Bagan

2Fish

38Ng

1Trott

Cardiff 4-1-4-1

Burnley

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs QPR, 03/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: F. Celestini

Bench last match3Alleyne34Banel24Cullen8Raghouber21Ramsey14Roberts22Sonne15Ahmedhodžić1Weiß

Cardiff

Last starting XI (4-1-4-1) vs West Ham, 04/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

Bench last match43Moreno50Holt27Colwill45Ashford44Kpakio52Perrett33Tankiewicz14Turnbull30Tyrer

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Cardiff at 24% to win and Burnley at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley Win	50%	31%	@ 3.00
Draw	26%	25%	@ 3.75
Cardiff Win	24%	44%	@ 2.15

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.67 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley or Draw	75%	56%	@ 1.67
Cardiff or Draw	50%	69%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	67%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 2.5	56%	62%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	44%	38%	@ 2.50
Over 3.5	33%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	21%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	44%	35%	@ 2.62

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cardiff vs Burnley?

Our model's pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.67, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 56%.

Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Burnley?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline for Cardiff vs Burnley.

What is the predicted score for Cardiff vs Burnley?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Cardiff and 1.54 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Cardiff and Burnley play?

Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.