Sun 20 Sep1-3Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Corinthians vs Fluminense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Corinthians vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Corinthians 1-3 Fluminense

Corinthians vs Fluminense finished 1-3. Fluminense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.50, landed.

Corinthians face Fluminense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Corinthians have 0 wins from their last 5, while Fluminense have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Corinthians won 1, Fluminense won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Corinthians vs Fluminense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Corinthians or Draw @ 1.28

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.46 – 1.09 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.8%	8.5%	4.6%	1.7%	0.5%
1	11.4%	12.4%	6.8%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.1%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.1%	4.4%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.6%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Corinthians winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Corinthians or Draw at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates a Corinthians win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Corinthians 48%Draw 25%Fluminense 27%

48%25%27%

48%

Corinthians Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Corinthians and Fluminense. Wins shown from Corinthians’s perspective: Corinthians 1 · 2 drawn · Fluminense 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Corinthians	1 – 3	Fluminense	L
2026-04-02	Fluminense	3 – 1	Corinthians	L
2024-08-18	Fluminense	0 – 0	Corinthians	D
2024-04-28	Corinthians	3 – 0	Fluminense	W
2023-10-20	Fluminense	3 – 3	Corinthians	D

📈 Recent form

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Fluminense.

LCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LCorinthians 0-1 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
LFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DEstudiantes L.P. 1-1 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores
LCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Platense.

WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
LAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Corinthians

Andre RamalhoNot in squad
Gabriel PaulistaGroin Injury
KaykeKnee Injury
Z. LabyadKnee Injury
Yuri AlbertoMuscle Injury

Fluminense

AlissonHip Injury
G. CanoInjury
GugaNot in squad
IgnacioInjury
John KennedyKnee Injury
Matheus ReisKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Corinthians at 48% to win and Fluminense at 27%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Corinthians Win	48%	43%	@ 2.20
Fluminense Win	27%	26%	@ 3.70
Draw	25%	31%	@ 3.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Corinthians or Draw at 1.28 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Corinthians or Draw	73%	74%	@ 1.28
Fluminense or Draw	52%	57%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	79%	@ 1.20
Over 1.5	72%	66%	@ 1.44
Under 2.5	53%	61%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	47%	39%	@ 2.40
Under 1.5	28%	34%	@ 2.75
Over 3.5	25%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	45%	@ 2.05
BTTS No	49%	55%	@ 1.70

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Corinthians or Fluminense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense +1.75	79%	84%	1.13
Corinthians +0.75	77%	–	1.20
Fluminense +1.5	76%	79%	1.20
Corinthians +0.5	73%	74%	1.28
Fluminense +1.25	70%	76%	1.25
Corinthians +0.25	67%	69%	1.39
Fluminense +1	64%	73%	1.30
Corinthians 0	60%	63%	1.51
Fluminense +0.75	58%	63%	1.51
Corinthians -0.25	54%	52%	@ 1.87
Fluminense +0.5	52%	56%	1.70
Corinthians -0.5	48%	44%	@ 2.17
Fluminense +0.25	46%	48%	2.00
Corinthians -0.75	42%	37%	@ 2.57
Fluminense 0	40%	37%	@ 2.56
Corinthians -1	36%	27%	@ 3.52
Fluminense -0.25	33%	31%	@ 3.08
Corinthians -1.25	30%	24%	@ 4.01
Fluminense -0.5	27%	26%	3.62
Corinthians -1.5	24%	21%	@ 4.40
Corinthians -1.75	21%	16%	@ 5.90

📈 How the market moved

Corinthians 44%Draw 31%Fluminense 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Our model's main pick is Corinthians or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Corinthians vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.46 for Corinthians and 1.09 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Corinthians and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.