⚽ Brazilian Série A
Flamengo vs Grêmio Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Flamengo vs Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 04 November 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Result: Flamengo 3-1 Grêmio
Flamengo vs Grêmio finished 3-1. Flamengo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.80, did not land.
Flamengo face Grêmio in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Wednesday 04 November 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Flamengo have 4 wins from their last 5, while Grêmio have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 3, Grêmio won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 2.0-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Flamengo vs Grêmio with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.80, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points no (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Flamengo and Grêmio. Wins shown from Flamengo’s perspective: Flamengo 3 · Grêmio 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Flamengo | 3 – 1 | Grêmio | W |
| 2026-05-10 | Grêmio | 0 – 1 | Flamengo | W |
| 2024-09-22 | Grêmio | 3 – 2 | Flamengo | L |
| 2024-06-13 | Flamengo | 2 – 1 | Grêmio | W |
| 2023-10-26 | Grêmio | 3 – 2 | Flamengo | L |
📈 Recent form
Flamengo come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Vasco da Gama.
- WFlamengo 3-1 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
- WVasco da Gama 1-4 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
- WFlamengo 3-2 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A
- DFlamengo 0-0 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
- WBahia 0-3 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
Grêmio come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Flamengo.
- LFlamengo 3-1 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
- WGrêmio 2-0 Atlético MineiroCopa Do Brasil
- WGrêmio 2-0 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- WCoritiba 0-1 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
- LGrêmio 2-4 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- DaniloJaw injury
- S. NiguezMuscle Injury
- G. PlataSuspended (cards)
- A. ValenciaEye injury
- Lucas PaquetaInjury
- Carlos ViniciusSuspended (cards)
- Danilo BarbosaInjury
- Diego CaitoMuscle Injury
- J. NardoniNot in squad
- C. PavonMuscle Injury
- WevertonSuspended (cards)
- J. CabralMuscle Injury
🧩 Line-ups
Gremio
Flamengo
Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Flamengo at 62% to win and Grêmio at 14%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo Win | 62% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Draw | 24% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
| Grêmio Win | 14% | 6% | @ 15.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Flamengo or Draw at 1.03 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo or Draw | 84% | 94% | @ 1.03 |
| Grêmio or Draw | 36% | 19% | @ 4.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 51% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 49% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Flamengo or Grêmio is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio +2 | 71% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Flamengo -0.25 | 69% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Grêmio +1.75 | 66% | 41% | @ 2.29 |
| Flamengo -0.5 | 64% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Grêmio +1.5 | 61% | 37% | @ 2.56 |
| Flamengo -0.75 | 57% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Grêmio +1.25 | 55% | 30% | @ 3.11 |
| Flamengo -1 | 51% | – | 1.23 |
| Flamengo -1.25 | 45% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Grêmio +0.75 | 43% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Flamengo -1.5 | 39% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Grêmio +0.5 | 36% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Flamengo -1.75 | 34% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Grêmio +0.25 | 31% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Flamengo -2 | 29% | 53% | 1.78 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.80, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 53%.
Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 2.0-0.8 scoreline for Flamengo vs Grêmio.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Grêmio?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 2.00 for Flamengo and 0.85 for Grêmio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Flamengo and Grêmio play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 04 November 2026, 22:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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RodezAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.