⚽ Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 14:30 UTC.
FSV Mainz 05 face Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: FSV Mainz 05 have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bayern Munich have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 1, Bayern Munich won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 67%, projecting a 1.2-2.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% |
| 1 | 2.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is a Bayern Munich win at odds 1.33, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayern Munich win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 67%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich. Wins shown from FSV Mainz 05’s perspective: FSV Mainz 05 1 · 1 drawn · Bayern Munich 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 – 4 | Bayern Munich | L |
| 2025-12-14 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 2 | FSV Mainz 05 | D |
| 2025-04-26 | Bayern Munich | 3 – 0 | FSV Mainz 05 | L |
| 2024-12-14 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 – 1 | Bayern Munich | W |
| 2024-03-09 | Bayern Munich | 8 – 1 | FSV Mainz 05 | L |
📈 Recent form
FSV Mainz 05 come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at FC Schalke 04. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at SV Elversberg.
- LSV Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LVfL Bochum 2-0 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
- LFSV Mainz 05 2-3 Werder BremenBundesliga
- WFC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LFSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Bayern Munich come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to 1. FC Magdeburg. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WAtlético Madrid 0-2 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- DBayern Munich 2-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WBayern Munich 6-1 1. FC MagdeburgDFB Pokal
- WSC Freiburg 1-3 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- DBayern Munich 2-2 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Bayern München
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: V. Kompany
FSV Mainz 05
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: U. Fischer
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices FSV Mainz 05 at 14% to win and Bayern Munich at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich Win | 67% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
| FSV Mainz 05 Win | 14% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.11 (86% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or Draw | 86% | 86% | @ 1.11 |
| FSV Mainz 05 or Draw | 34% | 28% | @ 3.25 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 90% | @ 1.06 |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 | 41% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 10% | @ 10.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 34% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich?
Our model's pick is a Bayern Munich win at odds 1.33, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich?
Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 67%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.9 scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.23 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.90 for Bayern Munich. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich play?
Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 14:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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