⚽ Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs AC Milan in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Genoa face AC Milan in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Genoa have 4 wins from their last 5, while AC Milan have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs AC Milan with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an AC Milan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Genoa and AC Milan. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 3 drawn · AC Milan 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Genoa | 1 – 2 | AC Milan | L |
| 2026-01-08 | AC Milan | 1 – 1 | Genoa | D |
| 2025-05-05 | Genoa | 1 – 2 | AC Milan | L |
| 2024-12-15 | AC Milan | 0 – 0 | Genoa | D |
| 2024-05-05 | AC Milan | 3 – 3 | Genoa | D |
📈 Recent form
Genoa come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Juventus. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at AS Roma.
- WLecce 1-2 GenoaSerie A
- WGenoa 2-0 JuventusSerie A
- WGenoa 1-0 VeneziaSerie A
- LAS Roma 2-0 GenoaSerie A
- WGenoa 2-1 FiorentinaSerie A
AC Milan come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Inter. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to Bologna.
- WAC Milan 3-1 InterSerie A
- LAC Milan 2-4 BolognaSerie A
- WUdinese 0-2 AC MilanSerie A
- LBournemouth 3-0 AC MilanUEFA Europa League
- WAC Milan 3-2 AtalantaSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. VenturinoJumpers Knee
No absentees reported.
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
AC Milan
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Genoa
Coach: D. De Rossi
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Genoa at 22% to win and AC Milan at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan Win | 51% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Genoa Win | 22% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AC Milan or Draw at 1.18 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan or Draw | 77% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Genoa or Draw | 48% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| BTTS No | 47% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Genoa vs AC Milan.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs AC Milan?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.09 for Genoa and 1.61 for AC Milan. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Genoa and AC Milan play?
Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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RodezAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.