Sun 20 Sep0-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Grêmio vs Palmeiras Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Grêmio vs Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Grêmio 0-0 Palmeiras

Grêmio vs Palmeiras finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Palmeiras Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start at 1.30, was a half-win.

Grêmio face Palmeiras in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Grêmio have 1 win from their last 5, while Palmeiras have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Grêmio won 1, Palmeiras won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Grêmio vs Palmeiras with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Palmeiras Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 77%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.93 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	13.4%	9.8%	4.8%	1.7%
1	8.5%	12.4%	9.1%	4.4%	1.6%
2	4.0%	5.8%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%
3	1.2%	1.8%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Grêmio winDrawPalmeiras win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Palmeiras comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Palmeiras Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Grêmio 20%Draw 31%Palmeiras 49%

20%31%49%

49%

Palmeiras Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Grêmio and Palmeiras. Wins shown from Grêmio’s perspective: Grêmio 1 · 2 drawn · Palmeiras 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Grêmio	0 – 0	Palmeiras	D
2026-04-03	Palmeiras	2 – 1	Grêmio	L
2024-11-09	Palmeiras	1 – 0	Grêmio	L
2024-07-04	Grêmio	2 – 2	Palmeiras	D
2023-09-22	Grêmio	1 – 0	Palmeiras	W

📈 Recent form

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Grêmio

F. AmuzuNot in squad
DodiKnee Injury
MarlonNot in squad

Palmeiras

JefteKnee Injury
MuriloSuspended (cards)
PaulinhoMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Grêmio at 20% to win and Palmeiras at 49%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	49%	51%	@ 1.85
Draw	31%	26%	@ 3.60
Grêmio Win	20%	23%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.22 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	76%	77%	@ 1.22
Grêmio or Draw	48%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	69%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	57%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	43%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	31%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	22%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	46%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Grêmio or Palmeiras is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras +0.75	80%	83%	1.15
Grêmio +2	80%	84%	1.12
Palmeiras +0.5	76%	76%	1.25
Grêmio +1.75	76%	77%	1.23
Grêmio +1.5	72%	72%	1.32
Palmeiras +0.25	70%	73%	1.30
Grêmio +1.25	66%	68%	1.40
Palmeiras 0	64%	69%	1.39
Grêmio +1	60%	64%	1.50
Palmeiras -0.25	58%	58%	1.64
Grêmio +0.75	54%	56%	1.72
Palmeiras -0.5	52%	50%	1.92
Grêmio +0.5	48%	50%	1.95
Palmeiras -0.75	46%	44%	2.15
Grêmio +0.25	42%	42%	2.29
Palmeiras -1	40%	36%	@ 2.63
Grêmio 0	36%	31%	@ 3.04
Palmeiras -1.25	34%	32%	@ 3.01
Grêmio -0.25	30%	27%	@ 3.52
Palmeiras -1.5	28%	28%	3.44
Palmeiras -1.75	24%	23%	4.10
Grêmio -0.5	24%	24%	4.00
Grêmio -0.75	20%	17%	@ 5.50
Palmeiras -2	20%	16%	@ 6.00

📈 How the market moved

Grêmio 23%Draw 26%Palmeiras 51%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

Our model's main pick is Palmeiras Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.

Who is the favourite for Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Grêmio vs Palmeiras.

What is the predicted score for Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.93 for Grêmio and 1.46 for Palmeiras. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Grêmio and Palmeiras play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.