⚽ Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln finished 2-1. Hamburger SV won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Hamburger SV or Draw at 1.50, landed.
Hamburger SV face 1. FC Köln in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hamburger SV have 1 win from their last 5, while 1. FC Köln have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Hamburger SV won 1, 1. FC Köln won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Hamburger SV win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Hamburger SV with a +1 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a Hamburger SV win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln. Wins shown from Hamburger SV’s perspective: Hamburger SV 1 · 1 drawn · 1. FC Köln 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Hamburger SV | 2 – 1 | 1. FC Köln | W |
| 2026-03-14 | Hamburger SV | 1 – 1 | 1. FC Köln | D |
| 2025-11-02 | 1. FC Köln | 4 – 1 | Hamburger SV | L |
📈 Recent form
Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at RB Leipzig.
- WHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- LRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
1. FC Köln come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Hoffenheim. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Hamburger SV.
- LHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- D1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- LVfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- W1. FC Köln 3-2 HoffenheimBundesliga
- WWürzburger Kickers 1-2 1. FC KölnDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. BornauwMuscle Injury
- A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury
- M. VuskovicDoping
- T. HubersKnee Injury
- P. Okon-EngstlerInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Hamburger SV at 40% to win and 1. FC Köln at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Hamburger SV win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV Win | 40% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| 1. FC Köln Win | 30% | 39% | @ 2.45 |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hamburger SV or Draw at 1.53 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV or Draw | 68% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| 1. FC Köln or Draw | 58% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Hamburger SV or 1. FC Köln is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +1.75 | 89% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Hamburger SV +1.5 | 87% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| 1. FC Köln +1.75 | 83% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Hamburger SV +1.25 | 82% | 77% | @ 1.24 |
| 1. FC Köln +1.5 | 80% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Hamburger SV +1 | 77% | 75% | 1.27 |
| 1. FC Köln +1.25 | 75% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 73% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| 1. FC Köln +1 | 69% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 68% | 61% | @ 1.57 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.75 | 64% | 71% | 1.33 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 61% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.5 | 58% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Hamburger SV 0 | 55% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.25 | 52% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Hamburger SV -0.25 | 48% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| 1. FC Köln 0 | 45% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV -0.5 | 42% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| 1. FC Köln -0.25 | 39% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Hamburger SV -0.75 | 36% | 29% | @ 3.33 |
| 1. FC Köln -0.5 | 32% | 39% | 2.44 |
| Hamburger SV -1 | 31% | 22% | @ 4.41 |
| 1. FC Köln -0.75 | 27% | 33% | 2.91 |
| Hamburger SV -1.25 | 25% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| 1. FC Köln -1 | 23% | 25% | 3.81 |
| Hamburger SV -1.5 | 20% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| 1. FC Köln -1.25 | 18% | 23% | 4.18 |
| Hamburger SV -1.75 | 17% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| 1. FC Köln -1.5 | 13% | 21% | 4.50 |
| 1. FC Köln -1.75 | 11% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model's main pick is Hamburger SV with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model makes a Hamburger SV win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln.
What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for Hamburger SV and 1.42 for 1. FC Köln. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln play?
Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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