⚽ Ligue 1
Lyon vs Rennes Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lyon vs Rennes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Lyon 4-0 Rennes
Lyon vs Rennes finished 4-0. Lyon won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Lyon or Draw at 1.36, landed.
Lyon face Rennes in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lyon have 2 wins from their last 4, while Rennes have 3 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Lyon won 3, Rennes won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.8-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lyon vs Rennes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lyon vs Rennes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Rennes with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Lyon and Rennes. Wins shown from Lyon’s perspective: Lyon 3 · Rennes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Lyon | 4 – 0 | Rennes | W |
| 2026-05-03 | Lyon | 4 – 2 | Rennes | W |
| 2025-09-14 | Rennes | 3 – 1 | Lyon | L |
| 2025-04-26 | Lyon | 4 – 1 | Rennes | W |
| 2024-08-18 | Rennes | 3 – 0 | Lyon | L |
📈 Recent form
Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.
- WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
- DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
- WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
- DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
Rennes come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Marseille. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Lyon.
- LLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
- WRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- WAngers 1-2 RennesLigue 1
- WRennes 3-2 Le MansLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. DuranvilleMuscle Injury
- R. HimbertNot in squad
- N. KamaraNot in squad
- N. TagliaficoMuscle Injury
No absentees reported.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lyon at 43% to win and Rennes at 31%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Win | 43% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Rennes Win | 31% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.36 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon or Draw | 69% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Rennes or Draw | 57% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 | 57% | 59% | @ 1.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 34% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lyon or Rennes is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon +1.5 | 87% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Rennes +2 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Rennes +1.75 | 83% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Lyon +1.25 | 83% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Rennes +1.5 | 80% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Lyon +1 | 78% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Rennes +1.25 | 74% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Lyon +0.75 | 74% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Lyon +0.5 | 69% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Rennes +1 | 68% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Rennes +0.75 | 63% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Lyon +0.25 | 62% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Rennes +0.5 | 57% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Lyon 0 | 56% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Rennes +0.25 | 51% | 48% | @ 2.02 |
| Lyon -0.25 | 49% | 52% | 1.86 |
| Rennes 0 | 44% | 39% | @ 2.43 |
| Lyon -0.5 | 43% | 46% | 2.10 |
| Rennes -0.25 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.82 |
| Lyon -0.75 | 37% | 39% | 2.42 |
| Lyon -1 | 32% | 32% | 3.02 |
| Rennes -0.5 | 31% | 30% | 3.19 |
| Rennes -0.75 | 26% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Lyon -1.25 | 26% | 28% | 3.44 |
| Rennes -1 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Lyon -1.5 | 20% | 25% | 3.70 |
| Lyon -1.75 | 17% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Rennes -1.25 | 17% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Lyon -2 | 14% | 14% | 6.80 |
| Rennes -1.5 | 13% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lyon vs Rennes?
Our model's main pick is Rennes with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Rennes?
Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.5 scoreline for Lyon vs Rennes.
What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Rennes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.81 for Lyon and 1.52 for Rennes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lyon and Rennes play?
Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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