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⚽ Serie A

Monza vs Atalanta Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monza vs Atalanta in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Monza face Atalanta in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Monza have 1 win from their last 5, while Atalanta have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Atalanta won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 59%, projecting a 1.3-2.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monza vs Atalanta with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Atalanta or Draw @ 1.33

84%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.26 – 2.34 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	6.4%	7.5%	5.8%	3.4%
1	3.4%	8.1%	9.4%	7.4%	4.3%
2	2.2%	5.1%	5.9%	4.6%	2.7%
3	0.9%	2.1%	2.5%	1.9%	1.1%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-2

Monza winDrawAtalanta win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monza vs Atalanta comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Atalanta or Draw at odds 1.33, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 59%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Monza 13%Draw 28%Atalanta 59%

13%28%59%

59%

Atalanta Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Monza and Atalanta. Wins shown from Monza’s perspective: Atalanta 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-05-04	Monza	0 – 4	Atalanta	L
2024-10-30	Atalanta	2 – 0	Monza	L
2024-04-21	Monza	1 – 2	Atalanta	L
2023-09-02	Atalanta	3 – 0	Monza	L

📈 Recent form

Monza

Monza come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Cagliari. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Bologna.

LBologna 2-1 MonzaSerie A
LMonza 1-4 NapoliSerie A
LTorino 3-2 MonzaSerie A
WMonza 4-0 CagliariSerie A
LLazio 3-1 MonzaSerie A

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Parma.

LAtalanta 0-3 ParmaSerie A
DFiorentina 2-2 AtalantaSerie A
DAtalanta 4-4 FrosinoneSerie A
LAjax 2-0 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference
LAC Milan 3-2 AtalantaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Monza

No absentees reported.

Atalanta

I. HienMuscle Bruise

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Atalanta 4-2-3-1

29Carnesecchi

77Zappacosta

42Scalvini

40ObriÄ

47Bernasconi

13Éderson

8Pasalic

59Zalewski

17De Ketelaere

11Rowe

90Krstović

9Varela

46Robinson

16Ngonge

7Mangas

21Colombo

8Ondoa

24Bakoune

3Lucchesi

2Goglichidze

19Birindelli

1Törnqvist

Monza 3-4-2-1

Atalanta

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Parma, 02/11

Coach: M. Sarri

Bench last match99Elmas41Idele53Plaia10Samardžić51Sonzogni57Sportiello7Sulemana46Levak

Monza

Last starting XI (3-4-2-1) vs Napoli, 28/10

Coach: I. Juric

Bench last match27Touré14Akinsanmiro22Zeballos20Thiam6Antov44Carboni26Ciurria28Colpani10Cutrone11Forson60Kouadio47Mota

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monza at 13% to win and Atalanta at 59%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta Win	59%	45%	@ 2.10
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.60
Monza Win	13%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 1.33 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta or Draw	84%	72%	@ 1.33
Monza or Draw	37%	55%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-2.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	87%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	70%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	52%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	48%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	30%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	13%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	36%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Monza 28%Draw 26%Atalanta 46%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monza vs Atalanta?

Our model's pick is Atalanta or Draw at odds 1.33, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Monza vs Atalanta?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 59%. It projects an expected 1.3-2.3 scoreline for Monza vs Atalanta.

What is the predicted score for Monza vs Atalanta?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.26 for Monza and 2.34 for Atalanta. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monza and Atalanta play?

Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.