⚽ Serie A
Napoli vs Lazio Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Napoli vs Lazio in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Napoli face Lazio in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Napoli have 2 wins from their last 5, while Lazio have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 1, Lazio won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Napoli vs Lazio with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 10.7% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Napoli vs Lazio comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Napoli and Lazio. Wins shown from Napoli’s perspective: Napoli 1 · 2 drawn · Lazio 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Napoli | 0 – 2 | Lazio | L |
| 2026-01-04 | Lazio | 0 – 2 | Napoli | W |
| 2025-02-15 | Lazio | 2 – 2 | Napoli | D |
| 2024-12-08 | Napoli | 0 – 1 | Lazio | L |
| 2024-01-28 | Lazio | 0 – 0 | Napoli | D |
📈 Recent form
Napoli come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Monza. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at FC Porto.
- LFC Porto 4-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- LJuventus 2-0 NapoliSerie A
- WMonza 1-4 NapoliSerie A
- DNapoli 3-3 AS RomaSerie A
- WNapoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
Lazio come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at Sassuolo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WLazio 2-1 CagliariSerie A
- WSassuolo 2-6 LazioSerie A
- WLazio 2-1 ParmaSerie A
- WJuventus 0-3 LazioSerie A
- WLazio 3-1 MonzaSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. BuongiornoJumpers Knee
- PatricSprained Ankle
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Lazio
Coach: G. Gattuso
Napoli
Coach: M. Allegri
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Napoli at 48% to win and Lazio at 28%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 48% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Lazio Win | 28% | 31% | @ 3.10 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.36 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli or Draw | 73% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Lazio or Draw | 53% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 1.5 | 28% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Napoli vs Lazio?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.
Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Lazio?
Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Napoli vs Lazio.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Lazio?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.34 for Napoli and 1.19 for Lazio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Napoli and Lazio play?
Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 11:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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RodezAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.