⚽ Major League Soccer
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Friday 18 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: New York City FC 0-1 New York Red Bulls
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls finished 0-1. New York Red Bulls won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, New York Red Bulls Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.41, landed.
New York City FC face New York Red Bulls in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Friday 18 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York City FC have 0 wins from their last 5, while New York Red Bulls have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 2, New York Red Bulls won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is New York Red Bulls Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.41, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: New York City FC 2 · 1 drawn · New York Red Bulls 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | New York City FC | 0 – 1 | New York Red Bulls | L |
| 2026-05-16 | New York Red Bulls | 1 – 1 | New York City FC | D |
| 2026-04-29 | New York Red Bulls | 1 – 3 | New York City FC | W |
| 2024-11-23 | New York City FC | 0 – 2 | New York Red Bulls | L |
| 2024-09-28 | New York Red Bulls | 1 – 5 | New York City FC | W |
📈 Recent form
New York City FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Real Salt Lake. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to New York Red Bulls.
- LNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- LNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
New York Red Bulls come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at New York City FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Los Angeles FC.
- WNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WColumbus Crew 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- LLos Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- DSeattle Sounders 0-0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- LNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. BaieraKnee Injury
- A. FarnosInjury
- M. MoralezKnee Injury
- K. ParksInjury
- Talles MagnoMuscle Injury
- K. TrewinAnkle Injury
- A. MarcucciKnee Injury
- N. BenedettiInjury
- J. CheAnkle Injury
- J. Marshall-RuttyInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New York City FC at 38% to win and New York Red Bulls at 30%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC Win | 38% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| Draw | 32% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| New York Red Bulls Win | 30% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.22 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC or Draw | 67% | 76% | @ 1.22 |
| New York Red Bulls or Draw | 59% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York City FC or New York Red Bulls is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls +2 | 87% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.75 | 84% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.5 | 81% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.25 | 76% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| New York City FC +0.75 | 72% | 81% | 1.17 |
| New York Red Bulls +1 | 70% | 60% | @ 1.60 |
| New York City FC +0.5 | 67% | 75% | 1.26 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.75 | 65% | 52% | @ 1.83 |
| New York City FC +0.25 | 60% | 73% | 1.30 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.5 | 59% | 47% | @ 2.05 |
| New York City FC 0 | 54% | 69% | 1.38 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.25 | 53% | 40% | @ 2.39 |
| New York City FC -0.25 | 47% | 60% | 1.58 |
| New York Red Bulls 0 | 46% | 31% | @ 3.06 |
| New York City FC -0.5 | 41% | 53% | 1.78 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.25 | 40% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| New York City FC -0.75 | 35% | 48% | 2.00 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.5 | 33% | 25% | @ 3.81 |
| New York City FC -1 | 30% | 40% | 2.35 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.75 | 28% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| New York City FC -1.25 | 24% | 36% | 2.64 |
| New York City FC -1.5 | 19% | 33% | 2.92 |
| New York City FC -1.75 | 16% | 26% | 3.60 |
| New York City FC -2 | 13% | 20% | 4.65 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Our model's main pick is New York Red Bulls Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.41, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.55 for New York City FC and 1.22 for New York Red Bulls. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New York City FC and New York Red Bulls play?
Kick-off is Friday 18 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Seattle Soundersvs
Real Salt LakeMajor League SoccerThu 24 Sep01:30
Gironavs
AlbaceteSegunda DivisiónFri 25 Sep18:30
New York Red Bullsvs
St. Louis CityMajor League SoccerSat 26 Sep23:30
Tenerifevs
CadizSegunda DivisiónSat 26 Sep16:30
Philadelphia Unionvs
Orlando City SCMajor League SoccerSat 26 Sep23:30
CF Montrealvs
FC CincinnatiMajor League SoccerSat 26 Sep23:30Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.