Sat 19 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ La Liga

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.30, landed.

Osasuna face Rayo Vallecano in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 12:00 UTC. Recent form: Osasuna have 2 wins from their last 5, while Rayo Vallecano have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Osasuna won 2, Rayo Vallecano won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.08 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	9.7%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
1	11.9%	12.9%	7.0%	2.5%	0.7%
2	7.9%	8.6%	4.6%	1.7%	0.5%
3	3.5%	3.8%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Osasuna winDrawRayo Vallecano win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Osasuna 34%Draw 31%Rayo Vallecano 36%

34%31%36%

36%

Rayo Vallecano Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano. Wins shown from Osasuna’s perspective: Osasuna 2 · 2 drawn · Rayo Vallecano 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Osasuna	1 – 1	Rayo Vallecano	D
2026-01-24	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 3	Osasuna	W
2025-09-14	Osasuna	2 – 0	Rayo Vallecano	W
2025-01-19	Osasuna	1 – 1	Rayo Vallecano	D
2024-09-16	Rayo Vallecano	3 – 1	Osasuna	L

📈 Recent form

Osasuna

Osasuna come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Getafe. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Atlético Madrid.

DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
LAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
LOsasuna 0-2 EspanyolLa Liga
LAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WOsasuna 1-0 GetafeLa Liga

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Espanyol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Real Madrid.

DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WRayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
LReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
LBarcelona 5-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Osasuna

M. GomezHamstring Injury
J. HerrandoMuscle Injury
A. OrozMuscle Injury
V. RosierHamstring Injury

Rayo Vallecano

A. BatallaBroken calfbone
I. PalazonMuscle Injury
Luiz FelipeHamstring Injury
R. NtekaMuscle Injury
J. VertrouwdMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Osasuna at 34% to win and Rayo Vallecano at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano Win	36%	33%	@ 2.88
Osasuna Win	34%	38%	@ 2.50
Draw	31%	29%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.50 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	64%	62%	@ 1.50
Osasuna or Draw	62%	67%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	69%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	57%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	43%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	31%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	22%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	48%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Osasuna or Rayo Vallecano is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano +1.75	87%	86%	1.10
Rayo Vallecano +1.5	84%	82%	1.16
Osasuna +1.5	83%	84%	1.13
Rayo Vallecano +1.25	79%	79%	1.21
Osasuna +1.25	78%	83%	1.15
Rayo Vallecano +1	74%	78%	1.24
Osasuna +1	73%	–	1.17
Rayo Vallecano +0.75	69%	69%	1.39
Osasuna +0.75	67%	73%	1.30
Rayo Vallecano +0.5	64%	62%	1.53
Osasuna +0.5	62%	66%	1.44
Rayo Vallecano +0.25	58%	56%	1.72
Osasuna +0.25	56%	61%	1.57
Rayo Vallecano 0	51%	47%	@ 2.06
Osasuna 0	49%	53%	1.81
Rayo Vallecano -0.25	44%	39%	@ 2.44
Osasuna -0.25	42%	44%	2.15
Rayo Vallecano -0.5	38%	34%	@ 2.83
Osasuna -0.5	36%	38%	2.50
Rayo Vallecano -0.75	33%	27%	@ 3.56
Osasuna -0.75	31%	31%	3.08
Osasuna -1	26%	22%	@ 4.26
Rayo Vallecano -1.25	22%	17%	@ 5.50
Osasuna -1.25	21%	21%	4.55
Rayo Vallecano -1.5	17%	16%	@ 5.90
Osasuna -1.5	16%	18%	5.25
Osasuna -1.75	13%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Osasuna 38%Draw 29%Rayo Vallecano 33%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano.

What is the predicted score for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Osasuna and 1.08 for Rayo Vallecano. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.