⚽ Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:05 UTC.
Paris Saint-Germain face Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:05 UTC. Recent form: Paris Saint-Germain have 5 wins from their last 5, while Estac Troyes have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 77%, projecting a 2.7-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13.1% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 11.9% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 8.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 77%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points no (58%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 20 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-0 at Villarreal. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVillarreal 0-6 Paris Saint-GermainUEFA Champions League
- WLe Havre 1-5 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WParis Saint-Germain 2-0 LyonLigue 1
- WParis Saint-Germain 4-2 BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
- WStrasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
Estac Troyes come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Le Mans. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Lens.
- WEstac Troyes 2-0 Le MansLigue 1
- DToulouse 0-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- LEstac Troyes 1-3 LensLigue 1
- LEstac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleLigue 1
- LAngers 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Estac Troyes
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: S. Dumont
Paris Saint Germain
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: Luis Enrique
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Paris Saint-Germain at 77% to win and Estac Troyes at 8%, with the draw at 15%. Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain Win | 77% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | @ 10.00 |
| Estac Troyes Win | 8% | 5% | @ 21.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.01 (92% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain or Draw | 92% | 95% | @ 1.01 |
| Estac Troyes or Draw | 23% | 14% | @ 6.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.7-0.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 89% | @ 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 | 57% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 11% | @ 9.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 58% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 42% | 45% | @ 2.05 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 77%. It projects an expected 2.7-0.6 scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.72 for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.62 for Estac Troyes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Paris Saint-Germain and Estac Troyes play?
Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:05 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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