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⚽ Serie A

Parma vs Bologna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Parma vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Parma face Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Parma have 1 win from their last 5, while Bologna have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Parma won 2, Bologna won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 0.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Parma vs Bologna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.91 – 1.44 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	13.7%	9.9%	4.7%	1.7%
1	8.7%	12.5%	9.0%	4.3%	1.6%
2	3.9%	5.7%	4.1%	2.0%	0.7%
3	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Parma winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Parma vs Bologna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bologna win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Parma 24%Draw 24%Bologna 52%

24%24%52%

52%

Bologna Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Parma and Bologna. Wins shown from Parma’s perspective: Parma 2 · 1 drawn · Bologna 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-08	Bologna	0 – 1	Parma	W
2025-11-02	Parma	1 – 3	Bologna	L
2025-02-22	Parma	2 – 0	Bologna	W
2024-10-06	Bologna	0 – 0	Parma	D

📈 Recent form

Parma

Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Atalanta. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Lazio.

WAtalanta 0-3 ParmaSerie A
DParma 0-0 UdineseSerie A
LLazio 2-1 ParmaSerie A
LParma 0-3 TorinoSerie A
LInter 3-0 ParmaSerie A

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at AC Milan. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Inter.

WBologna 2-1 MonzaSerie A
WAC Milan 2-4 BolognaSerie A
WCagliari 0-2 BolognaSerie A
LBologna 1-3 InterSerie A
WLecce 1-2 BolognaSerie A

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Bologna 3-4-2-1

1Skorupski

41Vitík

16Casale

3Theate

20Zortea

19Ferguson

4Pobega

33Miranda

10Bernardeschi

28Cambiaghi

21Odgaard

76Lontani

19Touré

14Valeri

16Keita

4Sierro

80Fabbian

27Britschgi

72Drobnic

37Troilo

15Del Prato

30Daffara

Parma 3-5-2

Bologna

Last starting XI (3-4-2-1) vs Monza, 31/10

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Bench last match25Pessina7Orsolini6Moro11Mbangula18Libra14Heggem72Happonen5Helland17El Azzouzi9Dovbyk36Darmian8Amondarain

Parma

Last starting XI (3-5-2) vs Atalanta, 02/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: A. Gilardino

Bench last match8Cremaschi9Romero32Ordoñez41Nicolussi3N'Diaye47Konate22Ghidotti20Frigan23Elphege34Carlos7Diallo40Corvi

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Parma at 24% to win and Bologna at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna Win	52%	52%	@ 1.83
Parma Win	24%	21%	@ 4.50
Draw	24%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bologna or Draw at 1.18 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna or Draw	76%	79%	@ 1.18
Parma or Draw	49%	48%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 1.5	68%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	58%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	42%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	32%	30%	@ 3.20
Over 3.5	21%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	55%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	45%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Parma 21%Draw 27%Bologna 52%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Parma vs Bologna?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Parma vs Bologna?

Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline for Parma vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for Parma vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.91 for Parma and 1.44 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Parma and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.