Sun 20 Sep2-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

Parma vs Genoa Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Parma vs Genoa in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Parma 2-1 Genoa

Parma vs Genoa finished 2-1. Parma won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 2.5 goals at 1.50, did not land.

Parma face Genoa in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Parma have 0 wins from their last 4, while Genoa have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Parma won 1, Genoa won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Parma win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.0-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Parma vs Genoa with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Parma +0.75 @ 1.37

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.99 – 1.08 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.6%	13.6%	7.4%	2.6%	0.7%
1	12.5%	13.5%	7.3%	2.6%	0.7%
2	6.2%	6.7%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%
3	2.0%	2.2%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Parma winDrawGenoa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Parma vs Genoa comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Parma with a +0.75 start at odds 1.37, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Parma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Parma 35%Draw 30%Genoa 34%

35%30%34%

35%

Parma Win

66%

Under 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Parma and Genoa. Wins shown from Parma’s perspective: Parma 1 · 2 drawn · Genoa 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Parma	2 – 1	Genoa	W
2026-01-18	Parma	0 – 0	Genoa	D
2025-10-19	Genoa	0 – 0	Parma	D
2025-01-12	Genoa	1 – 0	Parma	L
2024-11-04	Parma	0 – 1	Genoa	L

📈 Recent form

Parma

Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Genoa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Como.

WParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
LComo 2-1 ParmaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
LParma 0-2 CremoneseCoppa Italia
LJuventus 2-0 ParmaSerie A

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sudtirol. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Parma.

LParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
WGenoa 1-0 SudtirolCoppa Italia
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
LGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
LLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Parma

A. BernabeInjury
H. Nicolussi CavigliaGroin Injury
L. ValentiCoach's decision

Genoa

E. HavelAnkle Injury
J. VasquezSuspended (red card)
L. VenturinoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Parma at 35% to win and Genoa at 34%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Parma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Parma Win	35%	31%	@ 3.10
Genoa Win	34%	37%	@ 2.55
Draw	30%	32%	@ 3.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Parma or Draw at 1.50 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Parma or Draw	64%	63%	@ 1.50
Genoa or Draw	63%	69%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	84%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	66%	62%	@ 1.53
Over 1.5	61%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 1.5	39%	36%	@ 2.62
Over 2.5	34%	38%	@ 2.50
Over 3.5	16%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	59%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS Yes	41%	47%	@ 2.00

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Parma or Genoa is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Parma +1.75	87%	86%	1.10
Parma +1.5	84%	83%	1.15
Genoa +1.5	83%	86%	1.10
Parma +1.25	79%	81%	1.18
Genoa +1.25	78%	85%	1.12
Parma +1	74%	78%	1.22
Genoa +1	73%	83%	1.14
Parma +0.75	69%	70%	1.37
Genoa +0.75	68%	–	1.26
Parma +0.5	64%	62%	1.54
Genoa +0.5	63%	69%	1.39
Parma +0.25	57%	55%	1.74
Genoa +0.25	56%	63%	1.51
Parma 0	51%	45%	@ 2.15
Genoa 0	49%	55%	1.75
Parma -0.25	44%	37%	@ 2.59
Genoa -0.25	43%	45%	2.13
Parma -0.5	37%	31%	@ 3.08
Genoa -0.5	36%	38%	2.49
Genoa -0.75	31%	30%	3.15
Parma -1	27%	17%	@ 5.75
Genoa -1	26%	22%	@ 4.43
Parma -1.25	22%	15%	@ 6.25
Genoa -1.25	21%	19%	@ 5.11
Parma -1.5	17%	14%	@ 6.80
Genoa -1.5	16%	17%	5.50
Genoa -1.75	13%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Parma 31%Draw 32%Genoa 38%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Parma vs Genoa?

Our model's main pick is Parma with a +0.75 start at odds 1.37, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Parma vs Genoa?

Our model makes a Parma win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.1 scoreline for Parma vs Genoa.

What is the predicted score for Parma vs Genoa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.99 for Parma and 1.08 for Genoa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Parma and Genoa play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.