⚽ Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Philadelphia Union face Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 21:00 UTC. Recent form: Philadelphia Union have 1 win from their last 5, while Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1, Toronto FC won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 2.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 1 · 2 drawn · Toronto FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Toronto FC | 3 – 3 | Philadelphia Union | D |
| 2024-07-13 | Toronto FC | 2 – 1 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2024-05-29 | Philadelphia Union | 0 – 0 | Toronto FC | D |
| 2023-08-30 | Toronto FC | 3 – 1 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2023-04-22 | Philadelphia Union | 4 – 2 | Toronto FC | W |
📈 Recent form
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Chicago Fire. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at FC Cincinnati.
- LFC Cincinnati 1-0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- DNashville SC 0-0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- LPhiladelphia Union 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DPhiladelphia Union 2-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Toronto FC come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at New York Red Bulls. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Atlanta United FC.
- LAtlanta United FC 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- LColumbus Crew 4-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Toronto FC
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: R. Fraser
Philadelphia Union
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: Ryan Richter
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 53% to win and Toronto FC at 22%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 53% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Toronto FC Win | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.10 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 77% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 47% | 32% | @ 2.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 2.3-1.2 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.30 for Philadelphia Union and 1.20 for Toronto FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC play?
Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 21:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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