Thu 5 Nov1-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Real Sociedad vs Lyon Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Real Sociedad vs Lyon in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 17:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Real Sociedad 1-1 Lyon

Real Sociedad vs Lyon finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Real Sociedad or Draw at 1.28, landed.

Real Sociedad face Lyon in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 17:45 UTC. Recent form: Real Sociedad have 1 win from their last 3, while Lyon have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.9-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Real Sociedad vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Real Sociedad or Draw @ 1.28

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.94 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	5.1%	3.3%	1.5%	0.5%
1	7.5%	9.9%	6.5%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.3%	9.6%	6.3%	2.7%	0.9%
3	4.7%	6.2%	4.0%	1.8%	0.6%
4	2.3%	3.0%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Real Sociedad winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Real Sociedad or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Real Sociedad win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Real Sociedad 48%Draw 23%Lyon 29%

48%23%29%

48%

Real Sociedad Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 6-0 at Lillestrom. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletic Club.

DReal Sociedad 1-1 LyonUEFA Europa League
LAthletic Club 2-1 Real SociedadLa Liga
WReal Sociedad 2-1 LevanteLa Liga
WLillestrom 0-6 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League
WMálaga 2-5 Real SociedadLa Liga

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Angers. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Paris Saint-Germain.

DReal Sociedad 1-1 LyonUEFA Europa League
WLyon 2-0 AngersLigue 1
LParis Saint-Germain 2-0 LyonLigue 1
LHoffenheim 3-0 LyonUEFA Europa League
WLyon 2-1 NiceLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Real Sociedad

A. OdriozolaKnee Injury
L. BeitiaAnkle Injury
A. ZakharyanAnkle Injury

Lyon

S. KangoConcussion
L. OpendaLeg Injury
M. OuedraogoKnee Injury
P. SulcKnee Injury
T. MortonGroin Injury

🧩 Line-ups

Lyon 4-3-3

1Greif

13Athekame

20Bacher

21Kluivert

16Abner

2Bidstrup

6Tessmann

8Tolisso

26Boudache

18Merah

11Nakamura

10Oyarzabal

9Óskarsson

11Guedes

21Herrera

4Gorrotxategi

7Barrenetxea

17Gómez

19Sarr

5Zubeldia

2Aramburu

13Marrero

Real Sociedad 4-4-2

Lyon

Official starting XI (4-3-3)

Coach: Jorge Maciel

Substitutes44Hamdani85Kamara22Mata99Nartey3Tagliafico46Gonçalves32Rodriguez24Duranville40Descamps25Bengui João

Real Sociedad

Official starting XI (4-4-2)

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Substitutes8Turrientes22Fort14Kubo28Lebarbier29Garcia15Marín6Martín3Muñoz12Ochieng16Pacheco1Remiro24Sučić

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Real Sociedad at 48% to win and Lyon at 29%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Real Sociedad Win	48%	56%	@ 1.70
Lyon Win	29%	20%	@ 4.75
Draw	23%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Sociedad or Draw at 1.18 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Real Sociedad or Draw	73%	80%	@ 1.18
Lyon or Draw	53%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	63%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	59%	59%	@ 1.62
Over 3.5	41%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 2.5	37%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	16%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	41%	@ 2.25

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Real Sociedad or Lyon is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon +2	83%	78%	@ 1.21
Lyon +1.75	80%	72%	@ 1.32
Real Sociedad +0.75	77%	84%	1.13
Lyon +1.5	76%	66%	@ 1.45
Real Sociedad +0.5	73%	–	1.24
Lyon +1.25	70%	61%	@ 1.55
Real Sociedad +0.25	66%	76%	1.25
Lyon +1	65%	56%	@ 1.71
Real Sociedad 0	60%	73%	1.31
Lyon +0.75	59%	49%	@ 2.00
Real Sociedad -0.25	53%	64%	1.50
Lyon +0.5	53%	43%	@ 2.20
Real Sociedad -0.5	47%	57%	1.69
Lyon +0.25	47%	36%	@ 2.65
Real Sociedad -0.75	41%	51%	1.89
Lyon 0	40%	27%	@ 3.50
Real Sociedad -1	35%	44%	2.15
Lyon -0.25	34%	24%	@ 3.97
Real Sociedad -1.25	30%	39%	2.46
Real Sociedad -1.5	24%	34%	2.77
Lyon -0.75	23%	16%	@ 5.90
Real Sociedad -1.75	20%	28%	3.40
Real Sociedad -2	17%	22%	4.25

📈 How the market moved

Real Sociedad 56%Draw 23%Lyon 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Our model's pick is Real Sociedad or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.

Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.3 scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.94 for Real Sociedad and 1.31 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Real Sociedad and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 17:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.