⚽ Bundesliga
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 16:30 UTC.
SC Freiburg face Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: SC Freiburg have 2 wins from their last 5, while Union Berlin have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Union Berlin won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 62% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a SC Freiburg win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin. Wins shown from SC Freiburg’s perspective: 2 drawn · Union Berlin 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | SC Freiburg | 0 – 1 | Union Berlin | L |
| 2025-11-01 | Union Berlin | 0 – 0 | SC Freiburg | D |
| 2025-03-30 | SC Freiburg | 1 – 2 | Union Berlin | L |
| 2024-11-08 | Union Berlin | 0 – 0 | SC Freiburg | D |
| 2024-05-18 | Union Berlin | 2 – 1 | SC Freiburg | L |
📈 Recent form
SC Freiburg come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at FC Augsburg. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Bayern Munich.
- WFC Augsburg 1-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 3-2 VfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal
- LSC Freiburg 1-3 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- LMonaco 3-0 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference
- LBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Union Berlin come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to SV Elversberg. Their only defeat in that run was 0-5 at 1. FC Köln.
- DUnion Berlin 1-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- L1. FC Köln 5-0 Union BerlinDFB Pokal
- DFC Augsburg 1-1 Union BerlinBundesliga
- DUnion Berlin 0-0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WUnion Berlin 1-0 SV ElversbergBundesliga
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Union Berlin
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
SC Freiburg
Coach: J. Schuster
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 54% to win and Union Berlin at 21%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg Win | 54% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Union Berlin Win | 21% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.12 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg or Draw | 78% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Union Berlin or Draw | 46% | 37% | @ 2.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 59% | @ 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 62% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.
Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.03 for SC Freiburg and 1.16 for Union Berlin. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do SC Freiburg and Union Berlin play?
Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 16:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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RodezAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.