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⚽ La Liga

Sevilla vs Alavés Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sevilla vs Alavés in the La Liga. Kick-off Friday 06 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sevilla face Alavés in the La Liga, kicking off Friday 06 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Sevilla have 1 win from their last 5, while Alavés have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 1, Alavés won 2, 2 drawn. The bookmaker market makes a Sevilla win the most likely result at 49%, implying a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sevilla vs Alavés with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Sevilla +0.25 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 77%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.49 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	8.2%	3.8%	1.2%	0.3%
1	13.3%	12.3%	5.7%	1.8%	0.4%
2	9.9%	9.2%	4.2%	1.3%	0.3%
3	4.9%	4.6%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Sevilla winDrawAlavés win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Alavés comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sevilla with a +0.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Sevilla win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Sevilla 38%Draw 34%Alavés 28%

38%34%28%

38%

Sevilla Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sevilla and Alavés. Wins shown from Sevilla’s perspective: Sevilla 1 · 2 drawn · Alavés 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-14	Sevilla	1 – 1	Alavés	D
2025-12-17	Alavés	1 – 0	Sevilla	L
2025-09-20	Alavés	1 – 2	Sevilla	W
2025-04-20	Sevilla	1 – 1	Alavés	D
2024-09-20	Alavés	2 – 1	Sevilla	L

📈 Recent form

Sevilla

Sevilla come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Hortaleza. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Getafe.

LGetafe 3-1 SevillaLa Liga
WHortaleza 0-3 SevillaCopa del Rey
WSevilla 2-0 OsasunaLa Liga
LReal Madrid 4-1 SevillaLa Liga
DLevante 3-3 SevillaLa Liga

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 1-6 at Barcelona.

LBarcelona 6-1 AlavésLa Liga
DAlavés 1-1 MálagaLa Liga
LCelta Vigo 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 1-2 Atlético MadridLa Liga
DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sevilla

M. BuenoSuspended (red card)
MarcaoMuscle Injury
PequeHamstring Injury
I. RomeroKnee Injury
M. SierraShoulder Injury

Alavés

M. RodriguezAnkle Injury

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Alaves 4-5-1

1Sivera

17Jonny

14Tenaglia

16Koski

3Yusi

7Pérez

23Benavídez

6Guevara

4Suárez

21Rebbach

15Boyé

16Isaac

19Stassin

20Correia

24Fofana

6Agoumé

21Ejuke

17Suazo

4Salas

5Castrín

2Iglesias

1Vlachodimos

Sevilla 4-4-2

Alaves

Last starting XI (4-5-1) vs Barcelona, 31/10

Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Bench last match2Valentini22Rodríguez13Giménez27Olaiz12Novoa11Martínez20Mañas19Ibáñez9Díaz24Diallo10Aleñá8Blanco

Sevilla

Last starting XI (4-4-2) vs Getafe, 01/11

Coach: Luis García

Bench last match11Vargas9Ure12Sangante10Fernández8Kochorashvili18Guridi7González13González3Romo22Carmona14Bueno15Cardoso

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sevilla at 38% to win and Alavés at 28%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Sevilla win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sevilla Win	38%	49%	@ 1.91
Draw	34%	27%	@ 3.50
Alavés Win	28%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sevilla or Draw at 1.22 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sevilla or Draw	68%	76%	@ 1.22
Alavés or Draw	58%	51%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	72%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	51%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 2.5	49%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 3.5	28%	24%	@ 4.00
Under 1.5	26%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	46%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sevilla or Alavés is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés +2	86%	86%	1.10
Alavés +1.75	83%	79%	1.19
Alavés +1.5	80%	74%	@ 1.29
Alavés +1.25	75%	70%	@ 1.36
Sevilla +0.75	73%	83%	1.15
Alavés +1	69%	66%	@ 1.45
Sevilla +0.5	68%	77%	1.25
Alavés +0.75	64%	56%	@ 1.70
Sevilla +0.25	62%	73%	1.30
Alavés +0.5	58%	50%	@ 1.95
Sevilla 0	55%	69%	1.39
Alavés +0.25	52%	42%	@ 2.30
Sevilla -0.25	48%	58%	1.64
Alavés 0	45%	31%	@ 3.10
Sevilla -0.5	42%	50%	1.93
Alavés -0.25	38%	27%	@ 3.60
Sevilla -0.75	36%	44%	2.19
Alavés -0.5	32%	23%	@ 4.10
Sevilla -1	31%	34%	2.79
Alavés -0.75	27%	17%	@ 5.50
Sevilla -1.25	25%	30%	3.18
Sevilla -1.5	20%	26%	3.63
Sevilla -1.75	17%	21%	4.50
Sevilla -2	14%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Sevilla 50%Draw 27%Alavés 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 How this pick was selected

🔍 How this pick was selected

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	41%
Dixon-Coles	Home	42%
GradientBoosting	Draw	38%

Market consensus on Sevilla Asian Handicap +0.25: 73%

The table above shows each model’s view of the match winner. This pick is on a different market (goals or handicap) and was selected on the bookmaker market’s probability, not on our model.

The bookmaker market puts this selection at 73% with the margin removed; the odds of 1.30 imply 77% including the margin. In our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we select on the market’s probability.

Expected goals: 1.41 for the home side, 1.19 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Alavés?

Our main pick is Sevilla with a +0.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Alavés?

Our model makes a Sevilla win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Sevilla vs Alavés.

What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Alavés?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Sevilla and 0.93 for Alavés. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sevilla and Alavés play?

Kick-off is Friday 06 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.