⚽ Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Result: Sporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union finished 3-4. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
Sporting Kansas City face Philadelphia Union in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Sporting Kansas City have 1 win from their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.6-2.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| 1 | 2.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| 2 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sporting Kansas City with a +2 start at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (81%), both teams to score points yes (72%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from Sporting Kansas City’s perspective: 2 drawn · Philadelphia Union 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Sporting Kansas City | 3 – 4 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2024-03-03 | Sporting Kansas City | 1 – 1 | Philadelphia Union | D |
| 2023-04-01 | Philadelphia Union | 0 – 0 | Sporting Kansas City | D |
📈 Recent form
Sporting Kansas City come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 14. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Los Angeles FC. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at home to Philadelphia Union.
- LSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 4-3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- LSporting Kansas City 0-3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- LAtlanta United FC 2-1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- O. BlorianChest Injury
- CapitaHamstring Injury
- J. DavisInjury
- I. JamesKnee Injury
- P. NdingaHamstring Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sporting Kansas City at 28% to win and Philadelphia Union at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 46% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Sporting Kansas City Win | 28% | 16% | @ 5.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.14 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 72% | 84% | @ 1.14 |
| Sporting Kansas City or Draw | 54% | 36% | @ 2.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-2.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 81% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 49% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 3.5 | 37% | 51% | @ 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 | 7% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 72%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 72% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 28% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sporting Kansas City or Philadelphia Union is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City +2 | 84% | 69% | @ 1.38 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1.75 | 80% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1.5 | 77% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 76% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 72% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1.25 | 71% | 51% | @ 1.88 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1 | 66% | 45% | @ 2.14 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 65% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Sporting Kansas City +0.75 | 60% | 39% | @ 2.43 |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 59% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Sporting Kansas City +0.5 | 54% | 35% | @ 2.72 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 52% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Sporting Kansas City +0.25 | 48% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 46% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Sporting Kansas City 0 | 41% | 21% | @ 4.58 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 40% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Sporting Kansas City -0.25 | 35% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 34% | 55% | 1.73 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 29% | 49% | 1.98 |
| Sporting Kansas City -0.5 | 28% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Sporting Kansas City -0.75 | 24% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 23% | 44% | 2.19 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 20% | 38% | 2.50 |
| Philadelphia Union -2 | 16% | 31% | 3.10 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model's main pick is Sporting Kansas City with a +2 start at odds 1.38, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.
Who is the favourite for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.6-2.8 scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Sporting Kansas City and 2.80 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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