Sat 19 Sep3-2Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Le Havre Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Le Havre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre

Toulouse vs Le Havre finished 3-2. Toulouse won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, did not land.

Toulouse face Le Havre in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Toulouse have 0 wins from their last 4, while Le Havre have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 3, Le Havre won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Le Havre with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Le Havre +1.75 @ 1.30

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.38 – 1.12 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	9.2%	5.1%	1.9%	0.5%
1	11.3%	12.7%	7.1%	2.7%	0.7%
2	7.8%	8.8%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
3	3.6%	4.0%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Toulouse winDrawLe Havre win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Le Havre with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Toulouse win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Toulouse 42%Draw 33%Le Havre 26%

42%33%26%

42%

Toulouse Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Le Havre. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Toulouse 3 · 1 drawn · Le Havre 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Toulouse	3 – 2	Le Havre	W
2026-02-15	Le Havre	2 – 1	Toulouse	L
2025-11-02	Toulouse	0 – 0	Le Havre	D
2025-02-23	Le Havre	1 – 4	Toulouse	W
2024-09-15	Toulouse	2 – 0	Le Havre	W

📈 Recent form

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.

WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1

Le Havre

Le Havre come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Toulouse.

LToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLe Havre 0-0 AngersLigue 1
LLe Havre 1-2 BrestLigue 1
DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
LLe Havre 0-1 MonacoLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Toulouse

A. FrancisMuscle Injury
R. NicolaisenCalf Injury

Le Havre

P. ArgneyInjury
F. MambimbiInjury
L. Mpasi-NzauInjury
T. PembeleNot in squad
A. ToureKnee Injury
S. ZagadouInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toulouse at 42% to win and Le Havre at 26%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse Win	42%	55%	@ 1.73
Draw	33%	25%	@ 3.90
Le Havre Win	26%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toulouse or Draw at 1.18 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse or Draw	71%	80%	@ 1.18
Le Havre or Draw	55%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 1.5	71%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 2.5	54%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 2.5	46%	57%	@ 1.67
Under 1.5	29%	22%	@ 4.33
Over 3.5	24%	34%	@ 2.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	49%	44%	@ 2.10

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toulouse or Le Havre is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Le Havre +2	84%	80%	1.18
Le Havre +1.75	81%	73%	@ 1.30
Le Havre +1.5	78%	67%	@ 1.42
Toulouse +0.75	75%	84%	1.13
Le Havre +1.25	72%	63%	@ 1.52
Toulouse +0.5	71%	78%	1.22
Le Havre +1	66%	57%	@ 1.68
Toulouse +0.25	65%	77%	1.25
Le Havre +0.75	60%	49%	@ 1.97
Toulouse 0	58%	73%	1.30
Le Havre +0.5	55%	44%	@ 2.17
Toulouse -0.25	52%	63%	1.50
Le Havre +0.25	48%	37%	@ 2.60
Toulouse -0.5	45%	56%	1.71
Le Havre 0	42%	27%	@ 3.57
Toulouse -0.75	40%	51%	1.91
Le Havre -0.25	35%	23%	@ 4.06
Toulouse -1	34%	43%	2.23
Le Havre -0.5	29%	22%	@ 4.42
Toulouse -1.25	28%	37%	2.56
Le Havre -0.75	25%	16%	@ 5.90
Toulouse -1.5	22%	33%	2.90
Toulouse -1.75	19%	27%	3.54
Toulouse -2	16%	20%	4.65

📈 How the market moved

Toulouse 56%Draw 24%Le Havre 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre?

Our model's main pick is Le Havre with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Le Havre?

Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Toulouse vs Le Havre.

What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Le Havre?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Toulouse and 1.12 for Le Havre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toulouse and Le Havre play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.