Fri 6 Nov19:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Strasbourg Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Strasbourg in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 06 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Toulouse face Strasbourg in the Ligue 1, kicking off Friday 06 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5, while Strasbourg have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 2, 1 drawn. The bookmaker market makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 46%, implying a 1.7-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Strasbourg with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Strasbourg +1.25 @ 1.33

72%Bookmaker odds imply 75%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.72 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.8%	6.3%	4.2%	1.8%	0.6%
1	8.3%	10.9%	7.1%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.1%	9.4%	6.1%	2.7%	0.9%
3	4.1%	5.4%	3.5%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.8%	2.3%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Toulouse winDrawStrasbourg win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Strasbourg comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Strasbourg with a +1.25 start at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Toulouse win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Toulouse 39%Draw 27%Strasbourg 34%

39%27%34%

39%

Toulouse Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Strasbourg. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Toulouse 2 · 1 drawn · Strasbourg 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-03	Strasbourg	1 – 2	Toulouse	W
2025-12-06	Toulouse	1 – 0	Strasbourg	W
2025-03-16	Strasbourg	2 – 1	Toulouse	L
2025-01-12	Toulouse	1 – 2	Strasbourg	L
2024-04-07	Toulouse	0 – 0	Strasbourg	D

📈 Recent form

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Le Mans. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Marseille.

LMarseille 2-0 ToulouseLigue 1
DToulouse 0-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
WLe Mans 0-3 ToulouseLigue 1
DMonaco 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1

Strasbourg

Strasbourg come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Auxerre. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Rennes.

WStrasbourg 5-1 AuxerreLigue 1
LRennes 3-0 StrasbourgLigue 1
LStrasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LNice 2-1 StrasbourgLigue 1
LParis FC 2-1 StrasbourgLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Toulouse

A. DonnumSuspended (cards)
R. MessaliThigh Injury
M. NifloreKnee Injury

Strasbourg

J. PanichelliKnee Injury
F. BaldeLeg Injury

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Strasbourg 4-3-3

1Jörgensen

24Høgsberg

6Doukouré

31Coulibaly

36Oso

14Essugo

29El Mourabet

10Reyna

80Yassine

40Harder

20Godo

20Tengstedt

13Russell-Rowe

15Dønnum

23Cásseres

14Sigur

8Jørgensen

12Tapé

2Nicolaisen

3McKenzie

94Diallo

16Restes

Toulouse 4-4-2

Strasbourg

Last starting XI (4-3-3) vs Auxerre, 01/11

Coach: Hugo Oliveira

Bench last match23Sousa12Piekutowski30Ortega11Nanasi4Mitchell26Kellyman21Diop16Antwi7Amo-Ameyaw

Toulouse

Last starting XI (4-4-2) vs Marseille, 01/11

Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Bench last match5Koumbassa9Hidalgo1Collin37Azizi18Amougou11Oppong31Schmidt6Vossah7Vignolo

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toulouse at 39% to win and Strasbourg at 34%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse Win	39%	46%	@ 2.05
Strasbourg Win	34%	29%	@ 3.30
Draw	27%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toulouse or Draw at 1.33 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse or Draw	66%	71%	@ 1.33
Strasbourg or Draw	60%	54%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	62%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	60%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 2.5	40%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 3.5	38%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	18%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	37%	39%	@ 2.38

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toulouse or Strasbourg is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Strasbourg +2	88%	86%	1.10
Toulouse +1.5	86%	85%	1.12
Strasbourg +1.75	85%	79%	@ 1.19
Strasbourg +1.5	82%	74%	@ 1.28
Toulouse +1.25	81%	84%	1.12
Strasbourg +1.25	76%	72%	@ 1.33
Toulouse +1	76%	83%	1.14
Strasbourg +1	71%	68%	@ 1.41
Toulouse +0.75	71%	76%	1.24
Toulouse +0.5	66%	71%	1.35
Strasbourg +0.75	66%	60%	@ 1.59
Strasbourg +0.5	60%	54%	@ 1.78
Toulouse +0.25	60%	67%	1.43
Strasbourg +0.25	54%	47%	@ 2.04
Toulouse 0	53%	61%	1.55
Strasbourg 0	47%	39%	@ 2.46
Toulouse -0.25	46%	53%	1.82
Strasbourg -0.25	40%	33%	@ 2.86
Toulouse -0.5	40%	46%	2.08
Toulouse -0.75	34%	40%	2.40
Strasbourg -0.5	34%	29%	@ 3.25
Strasbourg -0.75	29%	24%	@ 3.90
Toulouse -1	29%	32%	2.96
Strasbourg -1	24%	17%	@ 5.75
Toulouse -1.25	24%	28%	3.38
Strasbourg -1.25	19%	16%	@ 6.00
Toulouse -1.5	18%	26%	3.70
Toulouse -1.75	15%	21%	4.50
Strasbourg -1.5	14%	15%	6.40
Toulouse -2	12%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Toulouse 46%Draw 25%Strasbourg 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 How this pick was selected

🔍 How this pick was selected

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	38%
Dixon-Coles	Home	39%
GradientBoosting	Home	40%

Market consensus on Strasbourg Asian Handicap +1.25: 72%

The table above shows each model’s view of the match winner. This pick is on a different market (goals or handicap) and was selected on the bookmaker market’s probability, not on our model.

The bookmaker market puts this selection at 72% with the margin removed; the odds of 1.33 imply 75% including the margin. In our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we select on the market’s probability.

Expected goals: 1.36 for the home side, 1.24 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Our main pick is Strasbourg with a +1.25 start at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.3 scoreline for Toulouse vs Strasbourg.

What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.72 for Toulouse and 1.31 for Strasbourg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toulouse and Strasbourg play?

Kick-off is Friday 06 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.