Thu 5 Nov3-1Finished

Pafos

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Twente vs Pafos Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Twente vs Pafos in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Twente 3-1 Pafos

Twente vs Pafos finished 3-1. Twente won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.40, landed.

Twente face Pafos in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Twente have 2 wins from their last 4, while Pafos have no wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Twente win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 2.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Twente vs Pafos with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.74 – 0.86 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
1	7.5%	6.4%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
2	10.3%	8.8%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%
3	9.4%	8.1%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
4	6.4%	5.5%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Twente winDrawPafos win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Twente vs Pafos comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Twente win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Twente 55%Draw 23%Pafos 21%

55%23%21%

55%

Twente Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Twente

Twente come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 9-0 at Excelsior. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.

WTwente 3-1 PafosUEFA Europa Conference
WExcelsior 0-9 TwenteEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 0-2 TwenteEredivisie
WLincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 TwenteUEFA Europa Conference
LTwente 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie

Pafos

Pafos come into this game with no wins and 4 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Twente.

LTwente 3-1 PafosUEFA Europa Conference
DApollon Limassol 2-2 Pafos1. Division
DNea Salamis 0-0 Pafos1. Division
DPafos 1-1 RigaUEFA Europa Conference
DPafos 0-0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

🧩 Line-ups

Pafos 4-5-1

99Majecki

7Bruno

3Mmaee

4Luiz

14Ioannou

77Correia

50Brito

26Šunjić

30Dragomir

12Sema

18Lelê

9Weghorst

27Ørjasæter

10Taha

11Rots

8Weidmann

6Zerrouki

29Adelgaard

4Nijstad

3Pröpper

28Rooij

16Drommel

Twente 4-2-3-1

Pafos

Official starting XI (4-5-1)

Substitutes71Papastylianou82Petrou61Kais72Ioannou6Guga8Quina60Evzonas33Silva42Michael

Twente

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Substitutes22Pasveer31Gerritsen2Rosiak39Meilink14Hlynsson18Bawuah20Belt24Kurowski26Nagel7Pjaca25Hesselink

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Twente at 55% to win and Pafos at 21%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Twente win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Twente Win	55%	73%	@ 1.28
Draw	23%	16%	@ 6.00
Pafos Win	21%	11%	@ 8.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Twente or Draw at 1.08 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Twente or Draw	79%	89%	@ 1.08
Pafos or Draw	45%	27%	@ 3.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	87%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	70%	65%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	52%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	48%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	30%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	13%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	51%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	48%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Twente 72%Draw 16%Pafos 11%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Twente vs Pafos?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 65%.

Who is the favourite for Twente vs Pafos?

Our model makes a Twente win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 2.7-0.9 scoreline for Twente vs Pafos.

What is the predicted score for Twente vs Pafos?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.74 for Twente and 0.86 for Pafos. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Twente and Pafos play?

Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.