Sun 20 Sep1-3Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitória vs Cruzeiro Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vitória 1-3 Cruzeiro

Vitória vs Cruzeiro finished 1-3. Cruzeiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.28, did not land.

Vitória face Cruzeiro in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Vitória have 2 wins from their last 5, while Cruzeiro have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Cruzeiro won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.1-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória vs Cruzeiro with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.12 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	11.8%	6.9%	2.7%	0.8%
1	11.3%	13.3%	7.8%	3.0%	0.9%
2	6.4%	7.4%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.4%	2.8%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória winDrawCruzeiro win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória vs Cruzeiro comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória 36%Draw 32%Cruzeiro 33%

36%32%33%

36%

Vitória Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Vitória and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Vitória’s perspective: 1 drawn · Cruzeiro 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Vitória	1 – 3	Cruzeiro	L
2026-04-01	Cruzeiro	3 – 0	Vitória	L
2024-08-19	Vitória	2 – 2	Cruzeiro	D
2024-04-28	Cruzeiro	3 – 1	Vitória	L

📈 Recent form

Vitória

Vitória come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro.

LVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LVitória 0-2 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.

WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitória

AndersonKnee Injury
BaralhasNot in squad
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
Emmanuel MartinezInjury
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
RamonInjury

Cruzeiro

Gabriel PecBroken Leg
Jonathan JesusInjury
L. SinisterraMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória at 36% to win and Cruzeiro at 33%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória Win	36%	31%	@ 3.10
Cruzeiro Win	33%	40%	@ 2.40
Draw	32%	30%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória or Draw at 1.53 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória or Draw	65%	60%	@ 1.53
Cruzeiro or Draw	62%	69%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	67%	73%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	60%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	40%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	33%	27%	@ 3.50
Over 3.5	20%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	47%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	47%	53%	@ 1.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitória or Cruzeiro is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória +1.75	87%	85%	1.12
Vitória +1.5	85%	79%	@ 1.19
Cruzeiro +1.5	83%	85%	1.12
Vitória +1.25	80%	78%	1.22
Cruzeiro +1.25	78%	84%	1.13
Vitória +1	75%	75%	1.26
Cruzeiro +1	72%	83%	1.15
Vitória +0.75	70%	67%	1.43
Cruzeiro +0.75	67%	75%	1.27
Vitória +0.5	65%	60%	@ 1.59
Cruzeiro +0.5	62%	69%	1.39
Vitória +0.25	58%	53%	@ 1.80
Cruzeiro +0.25	55%	64%	1.50
Vitória 0	52%	44%	@ 2.17
Cruzeiro 0	48%	56%	1.70
Vitória -0.25	45%	36%	@ 2.62
Cruzeiro -0.25	42%	47%	2.07
Vitória -0.5	38%	31%	@ 3.02
Cruzeiro -0.5	35%	40%	2.38
Vitória -0.75	33%	25%	@ 3.79
Cruzeiro -0.75	30%	33%	2.85
Vitória -1	28%	17%	@ 5.50
Cruzeiro -1	25%	25%	3.85
Vitória -1.25	22%	16%	@ 5.90
Cruzeiro -1.25	20%	22%	4.33
Vitória -1.5	17%	15%	@ 6.40
Cruzeiro -1.5	15%	21%	4.50
Cruzeiro -1.75	13%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Vitória 31%Draw 29%Cruzeiro 40%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline for Vitória vs Cruzeiro.

What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.12 for Vitória and 1.17 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória and Cruzeiro play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.