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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitória vs Fluminense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 06 November 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vitória face Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Friday 06 November 2026, 23:00 UTC. Recent form: Vitória have 1 win from their last 5, while Fluminense have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Vitória won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória vs Fluminense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.29 – 1.20 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	9.9%	6.0%	2.4%	0.7%
1	10.7%	12.8%	7.7%	3.1%	0.9%
2	6.9%	8.3%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.0%	3.6%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória vs Fluminense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Fluminense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória 35%Draw 28%Fluminense 36%

35%28%36%

36%

Fluminense Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Vitória and Fluminense. Wins shown from Vitória’s perspective: Vitória 2 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-09	Fluminense	2 – 2	Vitória	D
2024-10-26	Vitória	2 – 1	Fluminense	W
2024-06-27	Fluminense	0 – 1	Vitória	W

📈 Recent form

Vitória

Vitória come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Chapecoense. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Coritiba.

LCoritiba 2-0 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
DVitória 1-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
DCorinthians 1-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
LSão Paulo 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WVitória 4-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Chapecoense.

WFluminense 2-1 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
LChapecoense 2-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 0-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
LFluminense 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 1-0 FluminenseBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitória

E. BritezSuspended (cards)
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
FabianoKnee Injury
MatheusinhoNot in squad
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
RamonLeg Injury

Fluminense

AlissonHip Injury
IgnacioSuspended (cards)
John KennedyKnee Injury
MartinelliNot in squad
Matheus ReisKnee Injury
J. MillanNot in squad

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Fluminense 4-2-3-1

1Fabio

23Guga

4Ignacio

3Silva

6Rene

35Hercules

16Nonato

11Savarino

10Ganso

17Canobbio

7Hulk

91Rene

12Tarzia

6Martinez

88Vitor

33Erick

95Goncalves

2Britez

25Caca

26Edenilson

59Gean

1Arcanjo

Vitoria 4-1-4-1

Fluminense

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Internacional, 28/10

Coach: Marcao

Bench last match98Eudes2Xavier21Rabello13Arana22Freytes32Acosta94Otavio34Nata14Cano30Soteldo90Serna19Castillo

Vitoria

Last starting XI (4-1-4-1) vs Coritiba, 31/10

Coach: Ventura Jair

Bench last match71Yuri3Darlan69Wanderson10Matheuzinho8Pochettino44Baralhas16Ramos20Silva79Kayzer23Fabricio77Laquintana9Bruno

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória at 35% to win and Fluminense at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense Win	36%	37%	@ 2.55
Vitória Win	35%	33%	@ 2.88
Draw	28%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fluminense or Draw at 1.40 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense or Draw	64%	67%	@ 1.40
Vitória or Draw	63%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	71%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	55%	54%	@ 1.75
Over 2.5	45%	46%	@ 2.05
Under 1.5	29%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	24%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	50%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Vitória 33%Draw 29%Fluminense 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	47%
Dixon-Coles	Away	42%
GradientBoosting	Away	38%

Two of our three models agree on the match result; the third sees it differently.

Expected goals: 1.28 for the home side, 1.31 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Fluminense?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Vitória vs Fluminense?

Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Vitória vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Vitória and 1.20 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Friday 06 November 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.