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Eredivisie

Eredivisie Betting Tips

Free daily Eredivisie tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.

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Most Likely Picks This Week (Accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Telstar vs Feyenoord
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sat 17 Oct
18:00		Over 2.572.3%@ 1.33
Twente vs Utrecht
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sun 18 Oct
18:00		Over 2.571.8%@ 1.33

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs Market This Week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sun 18 Oct
12:30		Over 2.582.3%@ 1.36+11.9%
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sat 17 Oct
14:30		Over 3.572.1%@ 1.57+13.3%
Groningen vs Ajax
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sun 18 Oct
14:45		Groningen or Draw56.2%@ 2.10+18%
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sat 17 Oct
19:00		Willem II or Draw51.7%@ 2.38+23%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.6%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market Probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market53%@1.7523%@4.0023%@4.0084%@1.1254%@1.7365%@1.44
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
DC 1X
77%
@ 1.22
Over 2.5
65%
@ 1.44
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Under 3.5
54%
@ 1.73
Home Win
53%
@ 1.75
DC X2
47%
@ 2.00
Over 3.5
46%
@ 2.00
Under 2.5
35%
@ 2.70
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Draw
23%
@ 4.00
Away Win
23%
@ 4.00
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
14:30		Market10%@9.0015%@6.2575%@1.2590%@1.0641%@2.2563%@1.50
DC X2
90%
@ 1.07
Over 1.5
90%
@ 1.06
Over 2.5
77%
@ 1.22
Away Win
75%
@ 1.25
BTTS Yes
63%
@ 1.50
Over 3.5
59%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
41%
@ 2.25
BTTS No
38%
@ 2.50
DC 1X
25%
@ 3.75
Under 2.5
23%
@ 4.20
Draw
15%
@ 6.25
Home Win
10%
@ 9.00
Under 1.5
10%
@ 10.00
Telstar vs Feyenoord ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market13%@7.0017%@5.5070%@1.3388%@1.0849%@1.9159%@1.57
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
DC X2
87%
@ 1.10
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
Away Win
70%
@ 1.33
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Under 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
DC 1X
30%
@ 3.25
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
17%
@ 5.50
Home Win
13%
@ 7.00
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
19:00		Market61%@1.5321%@4.3318%@5.2583%@1.1456%@1.6759%@1.57
Over 1.5
83%
@ 1.14
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.48
Home Win
61%
@ 1.53
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
DC X2
39%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.60
Draw
21%
@ 4.33
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
Under 1.5
17%
@ 5.50
PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
10:15		Market30%@3.1025%@3.8045%@2.0584%@1.1256%@1.6766%@1.40
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
DC X2
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
66%
@ 1.40
Over 2.5
65%
@ 1.44
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
DC 1X
55%
@ 1.80
Away Win
45%
@ 2.05
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
Under 2.5
35%
@ 2.70
BTTS No
34%
@ 2.75
Home Win
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
12:30		Market13%@7.0019%@5.0068%@1.3686%@1.1050%@1.8359%@1.57
DC X2
87%
@ 1.10
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
Away Win
68%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
DC 1X
32%
@ 3.00
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
19%
@ 5.00
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
Home Win
13%
@ 7.00
Groningen vs Ajax ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
14:45		Market23%@4.1022%@4.2055%@1.7086%@1.1051%@1.8065%@1.44
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
DC X2
77%
@ 1.22
Over 2.5
67%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Away Win
55%
@ 1.70
Under 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Over 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
DC 1X
45%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
33%
@ 2.88
Home Win
23%
@ 4.10
Draw
22%
@ 4.20
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market61%@1.5321%@4.3318%@5.2586%@1.1050%@1.8365%@1.44
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Home Win
61%
@ 1.53
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
DC X2
39%
@ 2.38
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
21%
@ 4.33
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
Twente vs Utrecht ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market70%@1.3319%@5.0012%@8.0088%@1.0849%@1.9158%@1.62
DC 1X
88%
@ 1.08
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
Home Win
70%
@ 1.33
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Over 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Under 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
DC X2
30%
@ 3.25
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
19%
@ 5.00
Away Win
12%
@ 8.00
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Eredivisie

The Eredivisie is the Netherlands’ top football division, home to Ajax, Feyenoord, PSV and AZ Alkmaar. Known as a breeding ground for exceptional talent, Johan Cruyff, Marco van Basten, Arjen Robben and many more, the Eredivisie plays an attacking, possession-based style that produces high-scoring, entertaining football.

For bettors, the Eredivisie is excellent for goals markets. With a 3.0 average goals per game and over 2.5 goals hitting in 62% of matches, it rivals the Bundesliga for scoring frequency. The quality gap between the big three, Ajax, Feyenoord and PSV, and the rest of the league is large.

Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

3.28
goals per match on average
63.7%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
64.2%
of matches see both teams score
41.8%
home wins

Based on 383 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key Betting Facts: Eredivisie

⚽
High-scoring football guaranteed
The Eredivisie averages 3.0 goals per game and over 2.5 goals hits in 62% of matches. The Dutch attacking philosophy means goals are almost always on the menu, regardless of the fixture.
🏠
Ajax, Feyenoord and PSV dominance
The big three dominate Eredivisie but compete closely among themselves. Their matches against lower-table sides are excellent Asian handicap opportunities, with the quality gap frequently underestimated by bookmakers.
🎯
Young talents inflate attacking stats
The Eredivisie is where young players are given freedom to express themselves. This creates unpredictable high-scoring environments, particularly when top clubs face weaker defences.
🏆
European Thursday fatigue
Eredivisie clubs in European competition show measurable fatigue in their domestic matches following Thursday Europa/Conference League fixtures. We track these patterns carefully.

New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Our Eredivisie Betting Record

56.3% of our published tips won 16 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
📅 11 Oct 2026✅ Win
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Pick: ADO Den Haag Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 10 Oct 2026❌ Loss
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.4% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 09 Oct 2026✅ Win
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Pick: PSV Eindhoven Asian Handicap -1.0 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.1% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

All Eredivisie match analyses →

Eredivisie Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Feyenoord Feyenoord8620277+2020
WWWWD
2PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven86112610+1619
WLWWW
3AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar8611188+1019
LWDWW
4Twente Twente8521168+817
DWWWD
5Ajax Ajax84312210+1215
DDWWL
6Groningen Groningen84222014+614
WWDDL
7Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard84221415-114
DWLWW
8GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles82511917+211
DDDDL
9Excelsior Excelsior83231614+211
LDLDW
10Heerenveen Heerenveen82331111+09
LWDLD
11NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen82331314-19
DDLDL
12Cambuur Cambuur82241119-88
WDWDL
13Utrecht Utrecht82241425-118
WLWDL
14Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam81341320-76
DLLDL
15Telstar Telstar8134714-76
DLDLD
16PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle8116621-154
LLLDL
17ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag8035919-103
DDLLD
18Willem II Willem II8026723-162
LLLDL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top Scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
T
S. Tengstedt6
GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles
2
2
Z
G. Zechiël5
FeyenoordFeyenoord
4
3
Z
M. Zonneveld5
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
1
4
F
Nacho Ferri5
FeyenoordFeyenoord
1
5
H
A. Hadj-Moussa5
FeyenoordFeyenoord
1
6
W
B. Willumsson5
GroningenGroningen
0
7
T
G. Til5
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
0
8
B
T. van Bergen5
GroningenGroningen
2
9
S
Artem Stepanov5
UtrechtUtrecht
0
10
A
T. Arokodare4
AjaxAjax
1

Top Assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
Y
I. Yegoian5
ExcelsiorExcelsior
2
Z
G. Zechiël4
FeyenoordFeyenoord
3
G
O. Gloukh4
AjaxAjax
4
R
G. Read4
FeyenoordFeyenoord
5
I
M. Ihattaren3
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
6
R
E. Rottier3
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
7
W
D. van der Werff3
GroningenGroningen
8
D
K. Dolberg3
AjaxAjax
9
C
M. Chávez3
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
10
J
S. Janssen3
ExcelsiorExcelsior

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do you post Eredivisie tips?

We post Eredivisie tips every weekend during the season and on midweek matchdays when fixtures are scheduled.

Is the Eredivisie good for over goals betting?

Yes, the Eredivisie is one of the highest-scoring leagues in Europe. Over 2.5 goals hits in 62% of matches, making it our most reliable goals market alongside the Bundesliga.

Are your Eredivisie tips free?

Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram for daily notifications.

Which clubs dominate the Eredivisie?

Ajax, Feyenoord and PSV are the traditional big three. PSV and Feyenoord have been the strongest in recent seasons, with Ajax rebuilding after a transitional period.

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