🏆 Competitions

Serie A

Serie A Betting Tips

Free daily Serie A tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.

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Most Likely Picks This Week (Accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Udinese vs Lecce
Italy, Serie A
Sun 18 Oct
10:30		Under 3.573.8%@ 1.30
Juventus vs Lazio
Italy, Serie A
Sun 18 Oct
18:45		Under 3.571.9%@ 1.33

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs Market This Week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
AC Milan vs Atalanta
Italy, Serie A
Sun 18 Oct
16:00		Atalanta or Draw58.0%@ 1.91+10.7%
Udinese vs Lecce
Italy, Serie A
Sun 18 Oct
10:30		Lecce or Draw56.3%@ 1.91+7.5%
Juventus vs Lazio
Italy, Serie A
Sun 18 Oct
18:45		Lazio or Draw50.2%@ 2.15+7.8%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.6%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market Probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo ▼
Italy, Serie A
18:45		Market38%@2.4526%@3.6036%@2.6283%@1.1457%@1.6765%@1.44
Over 1.5
83%
@ 1.14
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
DC 1X
64%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.50
DC X2
62%
@ 1.53
Under 3.5
57%
@ 1.67
Over 3.5
43%
@ 2.20
Home Win
38%
@ 2.45
Away Win
36%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.62
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
17%
@ 5.50
Venezia vs Napoli ▼
Italy, Serie A
13:00		Market20%@4.7525%@3.7555%@1.7078%@1.2266%@1.4455%@1.70
DC X2
80%
@ 1.18
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
Away Win
55%
@ 1.70
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
DC 1X
45%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Draw
25%
@ 3.75
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Home Win
20%
@ 4.75
Bologna vs Inter ▼
Italy, Serie A
16:00		Market17%@5.5022%@4.2061%@1.5579%@1.2064%@1.5055%@1.70
DC X2
83%
@ 1.14
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
Away Win
61%
@ 1.55
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
DC 1X
39%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Draw
22%
@ 4.20
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Home Win
17%
@ 5.50
AS Roma vs Genoa ▼
Italy, Serie A
18:45		Market69%@1.3620%@4.7511%@8.5078%@1.2264%@1.5048%@1.95
DC 1X
89%
@ 1.08
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
Home Win
69%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
DC X2
31%
@ 3.00
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Draw
20%
@ 4.75
Away Win
11%
@ 8.50
Udinese vs Lecce ▼
Italy, Serie A
10:30		Market51%@1.8528%@3.4022%@4.3373%@1.3073%@1.3052%@1.80
DC 1X
78%
@ 1.20
Over 1.5
73%
@ 1.30
Under 3.5
73%
@ 1.30
Under 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
Home Win
51%
@ 1.85
DC X2
49%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
Draw
28%
@ 3.40
Over 3.5
27%
@ 3.50
Under 1.5
27%
@ 3.50
Away Win
22%
@ 4.33
Fiorentina vs Como ▼
Italy, Serie A
13:00		Market25%@3.7527%@3.5048%@1.9579%@1.2064%@1.5059%@1.57
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC X2
75%
@ 1.25
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
DC 1X
52%
@ 1.80
Away Win
48%
@ 1.95
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Home Win
25%
@ 3.75
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
AC Milan vs Atalanta ▼
Italy, Serie A
16:00		Market51%@1.8326%@3.6022%@4.2076%@1.2568%@1.4056%@1.67
DC 1X
78%
@ 1.22
Over 1.5
76%
@ 1.25
Under 3.5
68%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
Over 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
Home Win
51%
@ 1.83
DC X2
49%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
Over 3.5
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
24%
@ 4.00
Away Win
22%
@ 4.20
Juventus vs Lazio ▼
Italy, Serie A
18:45		Market56%@1.6725%@3.7019%@5.0075%@1.2872%@1.3350%@1.91
DC 1X
81%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
72%
@ 1.33
Home Win
56%
@ 1.67
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS Yes
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
50%
@ 1.91
DC X2
44%
@ 2.15
Over 3.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
25%
@ 3.70
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Away Win
19%
@ 5.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Serie A

Serie A is Italy’s top flight and one of the most tactically sophisticated leagues in European football. Home to Juventus, Inter Milan, AC Milan, Napoli and Roma, Serie A is renowned for its defensive discipline, tactical complexity and the unpredictability that comes from closely matched mid-table clubs.

For bettors, Serie A rewards patience and tactical knowledge. It is the lowest-scoring major European league, which makes under goals markets and Asian handicap bets particularly attractive for informed bettors. Understanding team motivation and defensive organisation is more important in Serie A than in any other top European competition.

Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.48
goals per match on average
47.0%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
47.0%
of matches see both teams score
39.7%
home wins

Based on 438 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key Betting Facts: Serie A

⚽
Lowest scoring major league
Serie A averages just 2.5 goals per game, the lowest of any major European league. Under 2.5 goals is a consistently strong market, particularly in clashes between defensive mid-table sides.
🏠
Inter’s defensive dominance
Inter Milan have kept a clean sheet in over 45% of home Serie A matches over the past three seasons.
🎯
Low-scoring derbies
The Derby della Madonnina (AC Milan vs Inter) and Derby d’Italia (Juventus vs Inter) are among the lowest-scoring derbies in European football. Under 2.5 goals has hit in over 60% of these fixtures in the past decade.
🏆
Promoted sides go under
Newly promoted Serie A clubs show the highest rate of under 1.5 goals matches of any major European league in their first season back in the top flight. This is a reliable and exploitable pattern.

New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Our Serie A Betting Record

61.1% of our published tips won 27 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
📅 12 Oct 2026⏳ Pending
Torino vs Udinese
Pick: Udinese Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.85
💡 Market consensus puts this at 52.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.85 imply about 54% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 12 Oct 2026⏳ Pending
Atalanta vs Venezia
Pick: Venezia Asian Handicap +2.0 @ 1.31
💡 Market consensus puts this at 72.6% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.31 imply about 76% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 10 Oct 2026✅ Win
Genoa vs Fiorentina
Pick: Genoa Asian Handicap +1.0 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.4% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

All Serie A match analyses →

Serie A Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Inter Inter6510188+1016
WDWWW
2Lazio Lazio6510114+716
WWDWW
3AS Roma AS Roma6420143+1114
DDWWW
4Cagliari Cagliari641163+313
DWWWL
5AC Milan AC Milan6330115+612
DWDDW
6Juventus Juventus632195+411
DWLDW
7Como Como632196+311
DLWWW
8Napoli Napoli6312106+410
WDWLL
9Frosinone Frosinone631297+210
LWDWW
10Sassuolo Sassuolo62221010+08
DLWDW
11Atalanta Atalanta520357-26
LLLWW
12Lecce Lecce6204612-66
LLWLL
13Bologna Bologna612357-25
WDLDL
14Udinese Udinese5113811-34
LLLWD
15Torino Torino511358-34
DLWLL
16Monza Monza6114915-64
LWLDL
17Genoa Genoa6114511-64
WLDLL
18Parma Parma6114410-64
LWLDL
19Fiorentina Fiorentina6114714-74
LDWLL
20Venezia Venezia5005413-90
LLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top Scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
M
D. Malen6
AS RomaAS Roma
0
2
R
A. Raimondo4
FrosinoneFrosinone
0
3
M
Lautaro Martínez4
InterInter
0
4
M
D. Maldini4
CagliariCagliari
0
5
V
Gustavo Varela4
MonzaMonza
0
6
R
A. Rabiot3
AC MilanAC Milan
2
7
T
M. Thuram3
InterInter
2
8
A
Vasilije Adžić3
SassuoloSassuolo
1
9
K
G. Kvernadze3
FrosinoneFrosinone
1
10
O
M. Osmajić3
GenoaGenoa
1

Top Assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
D
P. Dybala4
AS RomaAS Roma
2
S
R. Schmid3
FrosinoneFrosinone
3
D
A. Diouf3
InterInter
4
R
A. Rabiot2
AC MilanAC Milan
5
T
M. Thuram2
InterInter
6
N
T. Noslin2
LazioLazio
7
T
Nuno Tavares2
LazioLazio
8
M
Ricardo Mangas2
MonzaMonza
9
Z
M. Zaccagni2
LazioLazio
10
C
N. Cambiaghi2
BolognaBologna

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do you post Serie A tips?

We post Serie A tips every weekend and on midweek matchdays throughout the season.

Is Serie A good for under goals betting?

Yes, Serie A is historically the lowest-scoring major European league. Under 2.5 goals is a consistently strong market in Italian football, particularly in mid-table clashes.

Are your Serie A tips free?

Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram for daily notifications.

Which Italian clubs are most reliable to bet on?

Inter Milan and Juventus have the most consistent home records in Serie A.

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