⚽ La Liga
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
Result: Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid finished 2-1. Atlético Madrid won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Real Madrid or Draw at 1.30, did not land.
Atlético Madrid face Real Madrid in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:15 UTC. Recent form: Atlético Madrid have 3 wins from their last 5, while Real Madrid have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atlético Madrid won 2, Real Madrid won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Real Madrid or Draw at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Real Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid. Wins shown from Atlético Madrid’s perspective: Atlético Madrid 2 · 1 drawn · Real Madrid 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Atlético Madrid | 2 – 1 | Real Madrid | W |
| 2026-03-22 | Real Madrid | 3 – 2 | Atlético Madrid | L |
| 2025-09-27 | Atlético Madrid | 5 – 2 | Real Madrid | W |
| 2025-03-04 | Real Madrid | 2 – 1 | Atlético Madrid | L |
| 2025-02-08 | Real Madrid | 1 – 1 | Atlético Madrid | D |
📈 Recent form
Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.
- WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
- WAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
- WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga
Real Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Atlético Madrid.
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
- WElche 2-3 Real MadridLa Liga
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- WReal Madrid 2-1 InterUEFA Champions League
- LReal Betis 1-0 Real MadridLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. BarriosMuscle Injury
- A. SorlothMuscle Injury
- Eder MilitaoHamstring Injury
- F. MendyHip Injury
- RodrygoKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Atlético Madrid at 26% to win and Real Madrid at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid Win | 52% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Atlético Madrid Win | 26% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Madrid or Draw at 1.28 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or Draw | 75% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Atlético Madrid or Draw | 50% | 51% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Madrid or Real Madrid is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid +1.5 | 91% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Real Madrid +1.25 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Real Madrid +1 | 83% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Atlético Madrid +2 | 81% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Real Madrid +0.75 | 79% | 78% | 1.21 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.75 | 77% | 76% | 1.23 |
| Real Madrid +0.5 | 75% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.5 | 74% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Real Madrid +0.25 | 69% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.25 | 68% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Real Madrid 0 | 63% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Atlético Madrid +1 | 62% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Real Madrid -0.25 | 57% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.75 | 56% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Real Madrid -0.5 | 50% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.5 | 50% | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Madrid -0.75 | 44% | 43% | 2.25 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.25 | 43% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Real Madrid -1 | 38% | 36% | @ 2.69 |
| Atlético Madrid 0 | 37% | 36% | 2.68 |
| Real Madrid -1.25 | 32% | 32% | 2.98 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.25 | 31% | 31% | 3.10 |
| Real Madrid -1.5 | 26% | 28% | 3.37 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.5 | 25% | 27% | 3.48 |
| Real Madrid -1.75 | 23% | 24% | 4.00 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.75 | 21% | 22% | 4.25 |
| Real Madrid -2 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Atlético Madrid -1 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.25 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.5 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Our model's main pick is Real Madrid or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Atlético Madrid and 1.60 for Real Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid play?
Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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