Thu 5 Nov0-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Marseille

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille finished 0-1. Marseille won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.44, did not land.

Bayer Leverkusen face Marseille in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins from their last 3, while Marseille have no wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 78%, projecting a 3.3-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.44

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 3.33 – 0.91 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.4%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
1	4.8%	4.4%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2	8.0%	7.3%	3.3%	1.0%	0.2%
3	8.9%	8.1%	3.7%	1.1%	0.3%
4	7.4%	6.7%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%

Projected score: 3-0

Bayer Leverkusen winDrawMarseille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 78%. Goals lean over 2.5 (79%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Bayer Leverkusen 78%Draw 16%Marseille 6%

78%16%

78%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

79%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to 1. FC Nürnberg. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Marseille.

LBayer Leverkusen 0-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
LBayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 5-2 1. FC NürnbergDFB Pokal
LHoffenheim 3-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WOFI 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Europa League

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Angers. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sturm Graz.

WBayer Leverkusen 0-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
WMarseille 2-0 ToulouseLigue 1
WMarseille 4-3 Le HavreLigue 1
LSturm Graz 1-0 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
WAngers 2-5 MarseilleLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bayer Leverkusen

E. Ben SeghirMuscle Injury
V. BonifaceOff the roster
M. DiabyHamstring Injury
G. DoueCalf Injury
K. EichhornIllness
C. KofaneMuscle Injury
T. OermannOff the roster
M. TerrierMuscle Injury

Marseille

D. CorneliusHip Injury
EmersonKnee Injury

🧩 Line-ups

Marseille 4-3-3

12de Lange

74Bezahaf

4Egan-Riley

21Aguerd

25Garcia

23Højbjerg

19Kondogbia

8Abdelli

22Weah

9Gouiri

14Paixão

14Schick

30Maza

7Hofmann

17Vázquez

24García

8Andrich

3Gutiérrez

2Medina

12Tapsoba

4Quansah

1Flekken

Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1

Marseille

Official starting XI (4-3-3)

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Substitutes42Kamissoko11Maupay18Meité43Mmadi6Nnadi44Valero7Gomes48Abdallah92Vermot41Gomis46Mbondo

Bayer Leverkusen

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Coach: Carles Martínez

Substitutes5Badé28Blaswich42Culbreath6Fernández43Hawighorst36Lomb9Moreira10Tillman

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bayer Leverkusen at 78% to win and Marseille at 6%, with the draw at 16%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen Win	78%	69%	@ 1.36
Draw	16%	17%	@ 5.50
Marseille Win	6%	13%	@ 7.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.10 (92% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	92%	87%	@ 1.10
Marseille or Draw	21%	31%	@ 3.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.3-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 79% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	92%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	79%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 3.5	61%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 3.5	39%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	21%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	8%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	42%	44%	@ 2.10

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bayer Leverkusen or Marseille is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen +0.5	92%	86%	@ 1.10
Bayer Leverkusen +0.25	89%	85%	1.12
Bayer Leverkusen 0	86%	84%	1.13
Bayer Leverkusen -0.25	82%	76%	@ 1.25
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5	79%	71%	@ 1.34
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75	73%	68%	@ 1.40
Bayer Leverkusen -1	68%	63%	@ 1.50
Bayer Leverkusen -1.25	63%	56%	@ 1.71
Bayer Leverkusen -1.5	57%	51%	@ 1.91
Marseille +2	54%	62%	1.52
Bayer Leverkusen -1.75	52%	45%	@ 2.13
Marseille +1.75	48%	55%	1.73
Bayer Leverkusen -2	46%	38%	@ 2.50
Marseille +1.5	43%	49%	1.98
Marseille +1.25	37%	44%	2.16
Marseille +1	32%	37%	2.59
Marseille +0.75	27%	32%	2.94
Marseille +0.5	21%	29%	3.24
Marseille +0.25	18%	24%	3.93
Marseille 0	14%	16%	5.90
Marseille -0.25	11%	15%	6.40
Marseille -0.5	8%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Bayer Leverkusen 70%Draw 17%Marseille 13%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 78%. It projects an expected 3.3-0.9 scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille.

What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.33 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.91 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille play?

Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.