⚽ Major League Soccer
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Charlotte 0-1 Chicago Fire
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire finished 0-1. Chicago Fire won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Charlotte or Draw at 1.44, did not land.
Charlotte face Chicago Fire in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Charlotte have 3 wins from their last 5, while Chicago Fire have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Charlotte won 4, Chicago Fire won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlotte win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Charlotte or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Charlotte win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (63%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Charlotte and Chicago Fire. Wins shown from Charlotte’s perspective: Charlotte 4 · Chicago Fire 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Charlotte | 0 – 1 | Chicago Fire | L |
| 2024-10-02 | Charlotte | 4 – 3 | Chicago Fire | W |
| 2024-05-16 | Chicago Fire | 0 – 1 | Charlotte | W |
| 2023-10-08 | Chicago Fire | 0 – 2 | Charlotte | W |
| 2023-05-17 | Charlotte | 2 – 1 | Chicago Fire | W |
📈 Recent form
Charlotte come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at DC United. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Chicago Fire.
- LCharlotte 0-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- WDC United 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- DFC Cincinnati 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WCF Montreal 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- DCharlotte 0-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Chicago Fire come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Vancouver Whitecaps. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Nashville SC.
- WChicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- WCharlotte 0-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DChicago Fire 1-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. AbadaInternational duty
- R. AlokoInternational duty
- N. BerchimasFoot Injury
- A. JohnUpper-Body Injury
- A. JohnsonInternational duty
- I. ToklomatiInternational duty
- N. AllenInternational duty
- C. BradyInternational duty
- P. DithejaneInternational duty
- R. LewandowskiInternational duty
- R. LodInternational duty
- M. MbokaziLower-Body Injury
- A. MekvabishviliInternational duty
- A. FrancoKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Charlotte at 47% to win and Chicago Fire at 25%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Charlotte win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Win | 47% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
| Chicago Fire Win | 25% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlotte or Draw at 1.36 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte or Draw | 74% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 52% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 37% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Charlotte or Chicago Fire is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte +0.75 | 78% | 75% | 1.28 |
| Charlotte +0.5 | 74% | 69% | @ 1.39 |
| Chicago Fire +1.25 | 69% | 71% | 1.35 |
| Charlotte +0.25 | 68% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Chicago Fire +1 | 63% | 68% | 1.42 |
| Charlotte 0 | 61% | 60% | 1.62 |
| Chicago Fire +0.75 | 57% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Charlotte -0.25 | 55% | 52% | @ 1.85 |
| Chicago Fire +0.5 | 52% | 54% | 1.78 |
| Charlotte -0.5 | 48% | 46% | @ 2.11 |
| Chicago Fire +0.25 | 45% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Charlotte -0.75 | 43% | 40% | @ 2.43 |
| Chicago Fire 0 | 39% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Charlotte -1 | 37% | 32% | @ 2.98 |
| Chicago Fire -0.25 | 32% | 35% | 2.76 |
| Charlotte -1.25 | 31% | 29% | @ 3.34 |
| Chicago Fire -0.5 | 26% | 31% | 3.10 |
| Chicago Fire -0.75 | 22% | 25% | 3.83 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Our model's pick is Charlotte or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Our model makes a Charlotte win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire.
What is the predicted score for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.84 for Charlotte and 1.44 for Chicago Fire. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Charlotte and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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