⚽ La Liga
Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Valencia vs Real Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Valencia face Real Madrid in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Valencia have 1 win from their last 5, while Real Madrid have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Valencia won 1, Real Madrid won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 0.9-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Valencia vs Real Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Valencia vs Real Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.73, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Real Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Valencia and Real Madrid. Wins shown from Valencia’s perspective: Valencia 1 · 1 drawn · Real Madrid 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Valencia | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid | L |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Madrid | 4 – 0 | Valencia | L |
| 2025-04-05 | Real Madrid | 1 – 2 | Valencia | W |
| 2025-01-03 | Valencia | 1 – 2 | Real Madrid | L |
| 2024-03-02 | Valencia | 2 – 2 | Real Madrid | D |
📈 Recent form
Valencia come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Elche. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Villarreal.
- WElche 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
- LValencia 1-2 VillarrealLa Liga
- DValencia 0-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- DRacing Santander 2-2 ValenciaLa Liga
- LValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
Real Madrid come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Racing Santander. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WAEK Athens FC 2-3 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
- WRacing Santander 0-3 Real MadridLa Liga
- WBarcelona 1-2 Real MadridLa Liga
- WReal Madrid 4-1 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
- WReal Madrid 4-1 SevillaLa Liga
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Real Madrid
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: José Mourinho
Valencia
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: J. Aguirre
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Valencia at 17% to win and Real Madrid at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid Win | 64% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | @ 5.75 |
| Valencia Win | 17% | 9% | @ 10.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Madrid or Draw at 1.06 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or Draw | 84% | 91% | @ 1.06 |
| Valencia or Draw | 38% | 26% | @ 3.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.73, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 55%.
Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.9 scoreline for Valencia vs Real Madrid.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.93 for Valencia and 1.85 for Real Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Valencia and Real Madrid play?
Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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RodezAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.