Thu 5 Nov1-2Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Celta Vigo 1-2 Union St. Gilloise

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise finished 1-2. Union St. Gilloise won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.44, landed.

Celta Vigo face Union St. Gilloise in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Celta Vigo have 1 win from their last 3, while Union St. Gilloise have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 0.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.88 – 1.37 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	14.4%	9.9%	4.5%	1.5%
1	9.3%	12.7%	8.7%	4.0%	1.4%
2	4.1%	5.6%	3.8%	1.7%	0.6%
3	1.2%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Celta Vigo winDrawUnion St. Gilloise win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Celta Vigo 37%Draw 25%Union St. Gilloise 38%

37%25%38%

38%

Union St. Gilloise Win

61%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Celtic. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Union St. Gilloise.

LCelta Vigo 1-2 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
LRayo Vallecano 3-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
DCelta Vigo 0-0 Real BetisLa Liga
WCeltic 1-2 Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
WCelta Vigo 2-1 AlavésLa Liga

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Hapoel Beer Sheva. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WCelta Vigo 1-2 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
WSK Beveren 1-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WUnion St. Gilloise 5-2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
WUnion St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League
WUnion St. Gilloise 3-0 NijlenCup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Celta Vigo

H. F. Cuenca MartinezMuscle Injury
J. El AbdellaouiKnee Injury
B. IglesiasCalf Injury
A. NunezGroin Injury
M. RomanKnee Injury
C. StarfeltMuscle Injury
H. GonzalezInjury

Union St. Gilloise

A. Ait El HadjOff the roster
M. BiondicKnee Injury
I. HurteventKnock
O. KricfalusiKnock
K. Mac AllisterKnee Injury
I. PavlicOff the roster
R. SchoofsKnock

🧩 Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2

12Koffi

4Chibani

29Sylla

55Havenaar

27Patris

6Van de Perre

8Zorgane

11Carvalho

23Zeneli

13Rodríguez

38Mofokeng

19Swedberg

11Durán

23Álvarez

5Carreira

30Burcio

14Febas

17Rueda

3Alonso

18Lago

20Rodríguez

13Radu

Celta Vigo 3-4-3

Union St. Gilloise

Official starting XI (3-4-1-2)

Coach: D. Hubert

Substitutes26Sykes17Schoofs28Olaru25Hurtevent39hamoutahar30Florucz21De Roeve1Chambaere20Aquino43Kabongo32Keita

Celta Vigo

Official starting XI (3-4-3)

Coach: Claudio Giráldez

Substitutes6Moriba35Miller9Jutglà22Galán28Antañón4Faye31Arcos10Aspas1Bayındır21Cáceres24Driouech16González

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Celta Vigo at 37% to win and Union St. Gilloise at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise Win	38%	31%	@ 3.10
Celta Vigo Win	37%	42%	@ 2.25
Draw	25%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.62 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise or Draw	64%	58%	@ 1.62
Celta Vigo or Draw	63%	69%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	81%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 1.5	66%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	61%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	39%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	34%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	19%	32%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	60%	42%	@ 2.20
BTTS Yes	40%	58%	@ 1.62

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Celta Vigo or Union St. Gilloise is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise +2	89%	86%	1.11
Union St. Gilloise +1.75	87%	83%	1.15
Union St. Gilloise +1.5	84%	–	@ 1.25
Celta Vigo +1.5	83%	85%	1.12
Union St. Gilloise +1.25	79%	75%	1.26
Celta Vigo +1.25	78%	84%	1.13
Union St. Gilloise +1	74%	73%	1.30
Celta Vigo +1	73%	83%	1.15
Union St. Gilloise +0.75	69%	64%	@ 1.48
Celta Vigo +0.75	68%	75%	1.26
Union St. Gilloise +0.5	64%	57%	@ 1.65
Celta Vigo +0.5	63%	69%	1.38
Union St. Gilloise +0.25	57%	51%	@ 1.89
Celta Vigo +0.25	56%	64%	1.49
Union St. Gilloise 0	50%	42%	@ 2.25
Celta Vigo 0	50%	58%	1.64
Union St. Gilloise -0.25	44%	36%	@ 2.62
Celta Vigo -0.25	43%	49%	1.99
Union St. Gilloise -0.5	37%	31%	@ 3.02
Celta Vigo -0.5	36%	43%	2.23
Union St. Gilloise -0.75	32%	25%	@ 3.75
Celta Vigo -0.75	31%	36%	2.63
Union St. Gilloise -1	27%	17%	@ 5.50
Celta Vigo -1	26%	27%	3.46
Union St. Gilloise -1.25	22%	16%	@ 5.90
Celta Vigo -1.25	21%	25%	3.79
Union St. Gilloise -1.5	17%	15%	@ 6.25
Celta Vigo -1.75	13%	17%	5.50
Celta Vigo -2	11%	14%	6.60

📈 How the market moved

Celta Vigo 42%Draw 27%Union St. Gilloise 31%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?

Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise.

What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.88 for Celta Vigo and 1.37 for Union St. Gilloise. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise play?

Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.