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⚽ Jupiler Pro League

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Union St. Gilloise face Genk in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 17:30 UTC. Recent form: Union St. Gilloise have 4 wins from their last 5, while Genk have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Union St. Gilloise won 4, Genk won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 58%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.53

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.85 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	5.8%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.9%	10.7%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.1%	9.9%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.9%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Union St. Gilloise winDrawGenk win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 58%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Union St. Gilloise 58%Draw 23%Genk 20%

58%23%20%

58%

Union St. Gilloise Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Union St. Gilloise and Genk. Wins shown from Union St. Gilloise’s perspective: Union St. Gilloise 4 · Genk 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-05-03	Union St. Gilloise	1 – 0	Genk	W
2025-04-20	Genk	1 – 2	Union St. Gilloise	W
2025-03-15	Genk	2 – 1	Union St. Gilloise	L
2024-11-10	Union St. Gilloise	4 – 0	Genk	W
2024-05-26	Union St. Gilloise	2 – 0	Genk	W

📈 Recent form

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Hapoel Beer Sheva. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WSK Beveren 1-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WUnion St. Gilloise 5-2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
WUnion St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League
WUnion St. Gilloise 3-0 NijlenCup
DUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League

Genk

Genk come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Kortrijk. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at KV Mechelen.

LKV Mechelen 1-0 GenkJupiler Pro League
WGenk 2-1 Standard LiègeJupiler Pro League
WExcelsior Virton 0-2 GenkCup
WGenk 3-0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
LGenk 1-2 Fortuna SittardFriendlies Clubs

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Genk 4-2-3-1

28Brughmans

20Amaro

6Smets

44Kongolo

18Kayembe

4Tahirovic

8Heynen

10Ito

38Heymans

32Adedeji-Sternberg

17Durosinmi

13Rodriguez

30Florucz

38Mofokeng

11Smith

6Van De Perre

23Zeneli

27Patris

55Havenaar

29Sylla

4Chibani

12Koffi

Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2

Genk

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Standard Liege, 25/10

Coach: Jess Thorup

Bench last match1Leysen5Ravych25Roganovic19Medina56De Wannemacker21Bangoura11Erenbjerg23Bibout30Yokoyama

Union St. Gilloise

Last starting XI (3-4-1-2) vs SK Beveren, 31/10

Coach: David Hubert

Bench last match1Chambaere71Boets26Sykes21De Roeve10Ait El Hadj28Olaru8Zorgane14Pavlic20Aquino

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Union St. Gilloise at 58% to win and Genk at 20%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise Win	58%	58%	@ 1.57
Draw	23%	23%	@ 3.90
Genk Win	20%	18%	@ 5.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.17 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise or Draw	80%	82%	@ 1.17
Genk or Draw	43%	42%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	68%	61%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	54%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	46%	40%	@ 2.35
Over 3.5	32%	39%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	23%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	47%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Union St. Gilloise 58%Draw 23%Genk 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 61%.

Who is the favourite for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?

Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 58%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk.

What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.85 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.98 for Genk. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Union St. Gilloise and Genk play?

Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.