England

Thu 12 Nov19:45Upcoming

Croatia

⚽ UEFA Nations League

England vs Croatia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for England vs Croatia in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

England face Croatia in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: England have 3 wins from their last 4, while Croatia have 1 win from their last 4. The bookmaker market makes an England win the most likely result at 79%, implying a 2.6-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for England vs Croatia with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
England win	79%
Draw	14%
Croatia win	7%
Over 2.5 goals	65%
Both teams to score	50%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.65 – 0.70 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
1	9.3%	6.5%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%
2	12.3%	8.6%	3.0%	0.7%	0.1%
3	10.9%	7.6%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%
4	7.2%	5.0%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

England winDrawCroatia win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of England vs Croatia. Based on the bookmaker odds, an England win is the most likely result at 79%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 65%. Both teams to score: yes at 50%.

📊 Key numbers

England 79%Draw 14%Croatia 7%

79%14%

79%

England Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

England

England come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Croatia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Spain.

WEngland 3-0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
WCroatia 0-7 EnglandUEFA Nations League
WCzechia 0-2 EnglandUEFA Nations League
LEngland 2-3 SpainUEFA Nations League
WEngland 3-0 Costa RicaFriendlies

Croatia

Croatia come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Czechia. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Spain.

LCroatia 1-2 SpainUEFA Nations League
LCroatia 0-7 EnglandUEFA Nations League
LSpain 4-1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
WCzechia 1-2 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
WCroatia 2-1 SloveniaFriendlies

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Croatia 4-5-1

1Livaković

2Stanišić

6Šutalo

5Vušković

4Gvardiol

13Vlašić

10Modrić

18Jakić

8Kovačić

14Perišić

20Matanović

9Kane

21Eze

10Bellingham

17Rogers

16Lewis-Skelly

8Anderson

3Hall

6Guéhi

4Quansah

2Alexander-Arnold

1Pickford

England 4-2-3-1

Croatia

Last starting XI (4-5-1) vs Spain, 06/10

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: S. Bilić

Bench last match7Beljo22Mišić19Pasalic3Pongračić15Pasalic12Pandur16Baturina21Sučić11Budimir23Kotarski17Sučić9Kramarić

England

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Czechia, 06/10

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: T. Tuchel

Bench last match15Branthwaite18Garner20Gibbs-White14Ngumoha19Calvert-Lewin13Trafford23Steele12Chalobah22Lewis7Saka11Gordon

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices England at 79% to win and Croatia at 7%, with the draw at 14%. The bookmaker market makes an England win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
England Win	79%	@ 1.20
Draw	14%	@ 7.00
Croatia Win	7%	@ 13.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is England or Draw at 1.05 (93% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
England or Draw	93%	@ 1.05
Croatia or Draw	21%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.6-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	65%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.83
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.83

📈 How the market moved

England 78%Draw 14%Croatia 8%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for England vs Croatia?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an England win is the most likely result at 79%.

Who is the favourite for England vs Croatia?

Our model makes an England win the most likely result at 79%. It projects an expected 2.6-0.7 scoreline for England vs Croatia.

What is the predicted score for England vs Croatia?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.65 for England and 0.70 for Croatia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do England and Croatia play?

Kick-off is Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.