Italy

Thu 12 Nov19:45Upcoming

France

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Italy vs France Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Italy vs France in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Italy face France in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Italy have 2 wins from their last 4, while France have 3 wins from their last 4. The bookmaker market makes a France win the most likely result at 50%, implying a 1.2-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Italy vs France with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Italy win	24%
Draw	26%
France win	50%
Over 2.5 goals	56%
Both teams to score	59%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.20 – 1.75 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	9.2%	8.0%	4.7%	2.0%
1	6.3%	11.0%	9.6%	5.6%	2.5%
2	3.8%	6.6%	5.8%	3.4%	1.5%
3	1.5%	2.6%	2.3%	1.3%	0.6%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Italy winDrawFrance win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Italy vs France. Based on the bookmaker odds, a France win is the most likely result at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 56%. Both teams to score: yes at 59%.

📊 Key numbers

Italy 24%Draw 26%France 50%

24%26%50%

50%

France Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Italy

Italy come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Türkiye. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Belgium.

WItaly 3-1 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
DFrance 1-1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
WTürkiye 1-4 ItalyUEFA Nations League
LItaly 0-2 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
WGreece 0-1 ItalyFriendlies

France

France come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Belgium. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFrance 4-1 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
DFrance 1-1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
WBelgium 0-1 FranceUEFA Nations League
WTürkiye 0-1 FranceUEFA Nations League
WFrance 3-1 Northern IrelandFriendlies

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Italy

Last starting XI (-) vs Türkiye, 05/10

G. Donnarumma, G. Di Lorenzo, G. Mancini, A. Bastoni, M. Ruggeri, N. Barella, A. Romano, I. Doumbia, A. Vergara, G. Scamacca, D. Maldini

Unavailable: No reported absences

Bench last match12Carnesecchi13Vicario2Kayode5Calafiori19Scalvini16Frattesi14Inacio8Tonali10Fagioli7Cambiaghi9Esposito20Esposito

France

Last starting XI (-) vs Belgium, 05/10

G. Restes, J. Kounde, L. Yoro, M. Lacroix, A. Diouf, M. Akliouche, E. Camavinga, M. Kone, O. Dembele, E. Lepaul, B. Barcola

Unavailable: No reported absences

Bench last match16Maignan23Butez2Kalulu3Truffert11Olise14Rabiot21Da Cunha9Cherki20Doue

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Italy at 24% to win and France at 50%, with the draw at 26%. The bookmaker market makes a France win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
France Win	50%	@ 1.91
Draw	26%	@ 3.70
Italy Win	24%	@ 3.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is France or Draw at 1.25 (76% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
France or Draw	76%	@ 1.25
Italy or Draw	50%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.2-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	65%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	56%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	44%	@ 2.15
Over 3.5	35%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Italy 24%Draw 26%France 50%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Italy vs France?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a France win is the most likely result at 50%.

Who is the favourite for Italy vs France?

Our model makes a France win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.8 scoreline for Italy vs France.

What is the predicted score for Italy vs France?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Italy and 1.75 for France. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Italy and France play?

Kick-off is Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.