🏆 Competitions

Scottish Premiership

Scottish Premiership Betting Tips

Free Scottish Premiership match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 96 matches from our own database.

Picks
About
Key facts
Market
Our record
Method
Standings
FAQ

Most likely picks this week (accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct
19:45		Under 3.570.2%@ 1.36

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs market this week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Falkirk vs Celtic
Scotland, Premiership
Sat 31 Oct
15:00		Over 2.577.4%@ 1.40+8.4%
Motherwell vs ST Mirren
Scotland, Premiership
Sat 31 Oct
15:00		ST Mirren or Draw60.0%@ 1.95+17%
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct
19:45		Over 2.557.0%@ 1.91+8.9%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -6.6%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45		Market48%@1.9126%@3.5026%@3.6075%@1.2870%@1.3653%@1.75
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
DC 1X
74%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
53%
@ 1.75
DC X2
52%
@ 1.83
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Home Win
48%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
47%
@ 2.00
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
26%
@ 3.50
Away Win
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Celtic vs Dundee Utd ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45		Market74%@1.2517%@5.5010%@9.5084%@1.1253%@1.8052%@1.80
DC 1X
90%
@ 1.07
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
Home Win
74%
@ 1.25
Over 2.5
68%
@ 1.40
Under 3.5
53%
@ 1.80
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Over 3.5
47%
@ 2.00
Under 2.5
32%
@ 3.00
DC X2
26%
@ 3.75
Draw
17%
@ 5.50
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Away Win
10%
@ 9.50
Dundee vs Kilmarnock ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45		Market49%@1.9026%@3.6026%@3.6079%@1.2064%@1.5059%@1.57
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC 1X
74%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
DC X2
51%
@ 1.91
Home Win
49%
@ 1.90
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Away Win
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45		Market31%@3.0026%@3.6044%@2.1076%@1.2566%@1.4456%@1.67
Over 1.5
76%
@ 1.25
DC X2
69%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
DC 1X
56%
@ 1.70
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
Away Win
44%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Home Win
31%
@ 3.00
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
24%
@ 4.00
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45		Market42%@2.2027%@3.4031%@3.0075%@1.2870%@1.3655%@1.70
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
69%
@ 1.36
DC X2
58%
@ 1.67
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Home Win
42%
@ 2.20
Away Win
31%
@ 3.00
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
27%
@ 3.40
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
ST Mirren vs Hibernian ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45		Market27%@3.4026%@3.6047%@1.9578%@1.2266%@1.4456%@1.67
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
DC X2
73%
@ 1.30
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
DC 1X
53%
@ 1.80
Away Win
47%
@ 1.95
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Home Win
27%
@ 3.40
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Falkirk vs Celtic ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00		Market12%@7.5017%@5.5071%@1.3085%@1.1153%@1.8056%@1.67
DC X2
88%
@ 1.10
Over 1.5
85%
@ 1.11
Away Win
71%
@ 1.30
Over 2.5
68%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
Under 3.5
53%
@ 1.80
Over 3.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
Under 2.5
32%
@ 3.00
DC 1X
29%
@ 3.40
Draw
17%
@ 5.50
Under 1.5
15%
@ 6.50
Home Win
12%
@ 7.50
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00		Market34%@2.7526%@3.5040%@2.3078%@1.2266%@1.4459%@1.57
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
DC X2
66%
@ 1.40
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
DC 1X
60%
@ 1.57
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Away Win
40%
@ 2.30
Home Win
34%
@ 2.75
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Draw
26%
@ 3.50
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Motherwell vs ST Mirren ▼
Scotland, Premiership
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00		Market51%@1.8024%@3.8024%@3.8081%@1.1762%@1.5359%@1.57
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
DC 1X
76%
@ 1.25
Under 3.5
62%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Home Win
51%
@ 1.80
DC X2
49%
@ 1.95
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
38%
@ 2.50
Draw
24%
@ 3.80
Away Win
24%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Scottish Premiership

The Scottish Premiership is the top division in Scotland: 12 clubs play 33 matchdays, then the league splits into a top and bottom six for five more rounds, 38 in total.

We track every match in the Scottish Premiership in our own database: 96 matches since April 2026. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in. We only started tracking this competition recently, so these numbers will still move.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.94
goals per match on average
60.2%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
56.5%
of matches see both teams score
46.3%
home wins

Based on 108 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key facts: the Scottish Premiership in numbers

Every settled match in our database, 96 from April 2026 to October 2026:

⚽
2.83 goals per match
57.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and 28.1% over 3.5. Above the average of 55.5% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🏠
44.8% home wins
Draws 18.8%, away wins 36.5%. Home sides scored 1.49 goals per match, away sides 1.34. In line with the average of 45.4% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🎯
54.2% both teams scored
4.2% of matches ended 0-0. In line with the average of 54.2% across the 16 competitions we cover.
📊
1-0 is the most common score
The five most common results: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (7.3%).
🥅
77.1% over 1.5 goals
In 22.9% of matches one goal or none was scored.
🤝
18.8% draws
How often matches ended level. The second lowest of the 16 competitions we cover.

Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.

How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.

The market against reality

At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 45.2% of 42 matches in the Scottish Premiership, against 55.0% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 4.1%. Favourites here came in less often than their price suggested. That is a small sample, so treat it as a hint, not a rule.

Our model picked the right result in 35.4% of 96 live matches in the Scottish Premiership since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess.

Key point

The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.

Our record in the Scottish Premiership

Our published tips in the Scottish Premiership since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 5 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.

Tips Settled Won Avg. odds Return
Main tips 3 66.7% 1.35 −8.7%
Extra tips 2 0.0% 2.08 −100.0%
All tips 5 40.0% 1.64 −45.2%

Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.

66.7% of our main tips won 3 settled main tips in this competition since 11 May 2026 (extra tips not included)
See all our published tips →
📅 15 Sep 2026✅ Win
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Pick: Kilmarnock Asian Handicap +2.0 @ 1.32
💡 Model gives 88.4% probability for this selection. At odds 1.32 this represents +16.8% expected value. Selected as main accumulator pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 15 Sep 2026❌ Loss
Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.30
💡 Model gives 84.5% probability for this selection. At odds 1.30 this represents +10.3% expected value. Selected as main accumulator pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 09 Aug 2026❌ Loss
Rangers vs Hibernian
Pick: Over 3.5 @ 2.33
💡 Model gives 59.1% probability for this selection. At odds 2.33 this represents +37.8% expected value. Selected as extra value pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.

Every tip and result in our archive →

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 16 competitions, top leagues first, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Celtic Celtic10901256+1927
WWWLW
2Rangers Rangers10721177+1023
WDWWW
3Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian106132215+719
WLWDL
4Dundee Utd Dundee Utd104331414+015
WDWWD
5Dundee Dundee104241412+214
LDWWL
6ST Mirren ST Mirren104151118-713
WLLLL
7Falkirk Falkirk103341212+012
WWLDW
8ST Johnstone ST Johnstone103341115-412
LDWDL
9Aberdeen Aberdeen103251213-111
LWLDW
10Motherwell Motherwell102261118-78
LLLLL
11Kilmarnock Kilmarnock102261023-138
LWLDW
12Hibernian Hibernian102171016-67
LLLDL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
D
C. Durán6
CelticCeltic
5
2
N
B. Nygren6
CelticCeltic
4
3
F
J. Fowler6
ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
1
4
N
R. Naderi5
RangersRangers
2
5
M
J. Murrell5
FalkirkFalkirk
0
6
F
B. Fink4
DundeeDundee
0
7
N
K. Nisbet4
AberdeenAberdeen
3
8
B
Cláudio Braga4
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
2
9
M
C. Miller4
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
1
10
M
J. McPake3
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
5

Top assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
D
C. Durán5
CelticCeltic
2
M
J. McPake5
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
3
N
B. Nygren4
CelticCeltic
4
S
R. Strain4
FalkirkFalkirk
5
N
K. Nisbet3
AberdeenAberdeen
6
R
J. Randall3
Dundee UtdDundee Utd
7
T
K. Tierney3
CelticCeltic
8
G
D. Gassama3
RangersRangers
9
N
R. Naderi2
RangersRangers
10
B
Cláudio Braga2
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

Frequently asked questions

How many goals are scored in the Scottish Premiership?

In our database the Scottish Premiership averages 2.83 goals per match over 96 matches since April 2026. 57.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 54.2% both teams scored.

How often does the home team win in the Scottish Premiership?

Home sides won 44.8% of 96 matches in our database, draws were 18.8% and away wins 36.5%.

How accurate are your predictions in the Scottish Premiership?

Our model picked the right result in 35.4% of 96 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 5 settled, with a return of −45.2%.

Are your tips in the Scottish Premiership free?

Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.

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